The NFL's Perfect Season Opener

Why are these men smiling?  See section 354.c.iv.

When Roger Goodell and Demaurice Smith signed the new NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, there was a little-known clause in section 354.c.iv called the "Make Everyone Forget About the Lock-Out with an Opening Game for the Ages" provision.  Goodell and Smith couldn't have scripted a better game if they had literally put it down in ink and certified it with an army of lawyers.  Wow -- what a game!

Let me be clear, I don't like "good games" (meaning close games).  To me, a good game is a Packer blow-out.  The Falcons game in the playoffs was a "good game" -- never in doubt from start to finish.  But from the NFL's perspective, that was a goooooooood game!  The last two Super Bowl champions, facing off at the most historic of NFL venues.  It was a media-palooza -- reaching a hype level in the 72-hour pre-game show that felt almost equal to the buzz of the last NFL game played in Dallas last February.

And the game itself lived up to all that hype -- a 42-34 shoot-out that came down to a final goal line stand on 4th down with no time left on the clock.  It was literally exactly the kind of game the NFL would like every game to be -- high-octane offenses, big plays on defense and special teams, tons of scoring, star players (particularly quarterbacks) who racked up the stats, two (nearly four) kick returns for touchdowns.  It was ridiculous.  Quite possibly a preview of the NFC Championship game.

Here are my observations from week one:

Kid Rock did not rock.

1. Aaron Rodgers should be illegal.  That first quarter was a quarterback school wrapped in a clinic and deep-fried in an NFL Films-narrated showcase.   Aaron evidently likes the hardware, because he made a strong opening day case for league MVP to go with his Super Bowl MVP... and championship belt.  Even more astonishing is Brees out-gunned him by 100 yards.
2. The defense bent but didn't quite break.  Giving up 500 yards of total offense and 34 points might be considered more than "bending" (maybe a high-ankle sprain?).  Two fourth-down stands and a fumble recovery are really all that kept that game from being a disappointing loss.  Hopefully that can be attributed to the Saints having one of the most potent offenses, but would like to see a little less porous defense.
3. Randall Cobb is a stud.  Hitting pay dirt twice in your first NFL game doesn't happen very often (I'm too tired to research exactly how often, but trust me -- it's rare).  That 108-yard kick-off return immediately put him on the map and will force teams to change their game plan in kicking/punting to the Packers.
4. Kid Rock is a dipshit.  Why the NFL thinks that washed up rock stars performing pre-game or half-time shows is a good idea has never been clear to me.  Memo to Roger: pull the plug.
5. Fingers crossed the injury bug doesn't strike again.  I don't see a report yet on Tramon Williams, but his injury did not look good.  I would guess he broke a bone from the angle of the hit and the way he was holding it afterwards.  I'm hoping for the best -- would really be a bummer if he missed time.
6. No one can run with our receivers.  The arsenal of weapons was on full display.  Jennings was on fire.  Jermichael was a monster.  Driver and Nelson were unstoppable.  The only guy who didn't get into the act was James Jones, but he'll have his day.

Happy with the win.  Offense is everything it was billed as.  Mild concerns about the defense, particularly if Tramon is out, but expect that side of the stat sheet to look a lot better in week two against Carolina.

5 Factors That Could Foil a Packer Repeat

Living in the San Francisco Bay Area, I am presently witnessing the Giants' struggle to repeat as World Series champions -- heck, more like their struggle just to make the playoffs.  Giants fans are frustrated.  They expect another title, based on the heightened expectations of winning it all last year.

Let's face it, as Packers fans we expect the same thing.  We won the Super Bowl.  We had a great draft.  We re-signed most of our key free agents.  And we have a bunch of starters returning from IR.  Why wouldn't we repeat???  Certainly that is the expectation in Vegas, where only the Patriots have better odds (5 to 1 vs 6 to 1 for the Packers) of winning it all.

Of course, we all know the reality is that repeating is extremely difficult, though not impossible.  In fact, the Super Bowl champion has repeated 7 times in the 45 years it has been played (a 15.5% repeat rate), including the Patriots in '04/'05, Broncos in '98/'99, Cowboys in '93/'94, 49ers in '89/'90, Steelers twice in '75/'76 and '79/'80, and, of course, the Packers in '67/'68.  There are many reasons repeating is so difficult -- including the NFL's practice of creating tougher schedules for the teams with the best record the previous season, the high probability of injury to key players, and not to mention the fact that 31 other teams circle the reigning champion as the team to beat.

The other reason repeating is so elusive is that winning the Super Bowl requires considerable luck, even when you are as good as we all believe the 2011 Packers are.  The Packers' ability to overcome an incredible string of bad luck last year (15 players on IR, all 6 regular season losses by 4 points or fewer, 4 with last-second field goals and 2 in overtime) was amazingly rare.  To not win their division, barely make the playoffs as a sixth seed, and win three road playoff games is something we may not again witness in our lifetimes.

So in an attempt to reverse-jinx this season, here are the 5 factors that could blow the Packers' chance to repeat.

The scene no Packer fan wants to see again this season. 

1) Rodgers goes down -- I know this is thinking the unthinkable, but the Packers' chances for a repeat rest squarely on the Super Bowl MVP staying healthy for the full season.  Although Matt Flynn has certainly shown he can play, he would be a first-year QB if he were pushed into significant playing time.  First-year QBs are usually .500 performers, best case -- even when they're really good.  Rodgers was 6-10 his first year as a starter in 2008 on a team that went 13-3 the previous season.

2) Offensive line struggles -- Chad Clifton had an outstanding season last year.  But at age 35 the probability of him playing at that level, without injury for another complete season is low.  If Clifton does go down, I have concerns about Derek Sherrod's ability to fill in.  Not that he can't become a quality left tackle.  It's just that he's a rookie, and he played like one in the pre-season.  The other concern on the O-line is T.J. Lang replacing Daryn Colledge at left guard.  Lang clearly won the starting job over Sherrod, who was obviously not up to the transition inside.  And Lang has been complimented by his teammates for his mean streak and more physical play.  But being a successful guard requires more than being a bad ass.  In fact, intelligence is arguably more important at the position, due to the need to quickly identify and pick up complex blitz packages.  The Packers gave up too many sacks in the pre-season, and if they start looking like the 2009 O-line, we will have problems (see issue #1 above).

3) Can't manufacture a pass rush -- seems like a worrywart concern in a defense that features Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, and Dom Caper's creative blitz schemes, but the ability to replace Cullen Jenkins' pass rushing abilities could prove difficult.  Mike Neal has the task of filling Jenkins' shoes, but Capers will likely look elsewhere for generating QB pressure.  I read in Sports Illustrated that the Packers ran a 2-4 with 5 DBs almost 70% of the time last year.  So it will most likely be somebody else who will have to step up or Matthews will see more double and triple coverage.  Like a lot of Packer fans after the Chiefs game, I'm hoping that Vic So'oto could provide a spark here, but that's probably wishful thinking -- he'll need more development before he becomes a real factor on the field in the regular season.

4) Another rash of injuries -- over-coming the loss of so many players, particularly key starters like Grant and Finley, last year just doesn't happen.  In fact, the Packers had to fight and claw and barely even made the playoffs due to their injury pandemic.  If the Giants hadn't blown that game against the Eagles in epic fashion, they probably would have claimed that 6th playoff spot and we would have all been forced to acknowledge that the rash of injuries was simply too much to overcome.  That can't happen again.  Despite the Packers' depth, no team under normal circumstances can recover from that many injuries.

5) Can't establish a consistent rushing game -- this is lower on my list of concerns, but there is uncertainty in the running attack.  Grant coming back full-steam from last year's injury is a question mark.  Starks is dynamic, but won't be surprising anyone anymore and needs to improve in pass protection on third down.  And Alex Green is still showing plenty of rookie green-ness.  Of course, I feel a lot better about their running back situation than I did after Grant went down last year, but this trio needs to find a groove even as they share carries.

Despite these concerns, Packers fans have every reason to feel bullish about this season.  The mindset of the Packers seems to be focused.  In spite of winning a Super Bowl, they still seem to have a chip on their shoulders.  They still seem to be playing like they have something to prove.  And I look forward to seeing that determination on the field starting with the Saints at Lambeau Field this Thursday night.

Packer Roster Deep on TEs and LBs

The cut down to the 53-man roster is complete. There were a few surprises -- I thought most notably the cutting of QB Graham Harrell and WR Chastin West. Both could end up on the practice squad, but I suspect they will be claimed off waivers by other teams before ever returning to the Hudson Center.

The Packers kept atypical depth at the positions of tight end (keeping 5) and linebacker (keeping 10). They also have 10 defensive backs, but only 8 offensive linemen. Scuttlebutt seems to be that Ted will try to claim a guard off waivers or via trade. Of the guys remaining on the roster, I think LB Jamari Lattimore and DB M.D.Jennings might be vulnerable if they need to make room for another O lineman -- something I think they need to do, incidentally.

It's an exciting roster, loaded with athleticism at every position. Where I foresee noticing this depth this year will be on special teams. The Packers have a long list of big guys who can run -- impressive set of TEs and LBs. The guys on the bubble all seem to realize that special teams is where they can get noticed, and are, therefore, focused on making an impact there. Combine the addition of a potentially dynamic return man in Randall Cobb and the impressive punting ability of Tim Masthay, and special teams could be a dramatically improved area in 2011.

Also notable is the presence of 10 rookies on the roster. The fact the Super Bowl champions would return a team of nearly 20% rookies testifies to how firmly they believe in youth and player development for sustaining excellence. Hard to argue with this philosophy given it's success. Will be exciting to see who from this crop emerges as the next batch of young stars.

Tough Cuts to 53-Man Roster

Ted Thompson will pare the 2011 Packers down to 53 players tomorrow. Given the Packers' incredible depth, there will be some very tough decisions -- not to mention plenty of NFL teams anxious to pick up our cast-offs. Here are the key decisions as I see them.

1) Keep 3 QBs -- last year the Packers got by with just 2 QBs on the active roster, but don't think they can do that this year. Graham Harrell is too good to sit on the practice squad without another team scooping him up. Plus, with Flynn becoming a free agent next year, the Packers can't risk Harrell slipping away. One roster spot occupied.

Brett Swain and Russell Brand.  The same guy???

2) Keep 5 or 6 WRs -- this is a really tough call. The top 5, including Cobb, are a lock (those agitating for a Driver cut are crazy in my opinion). But I would not be surprised to see one of the young studs, like Tori Gurley or Chastin West stay on as a 6th WR -- particularly justifiable since Cobb is their likely returner.  I'd keep West.  His game against Arizona was impressive, with five receptions for 134 yards including that 97-yard touchdown.  He caught every pass thrown his way and showed breakaway speed on the score.  Made me sad to lose Brett Swain, by the way -- he always kinda reminded me of Russell Brand. Sweet 'do.  And I always kept expecting him to say something funny in a British accent.

3) Keep 4 or 5 TEs -- another very tough call. Tom Crabtree and Ryan Taylor would seem to be the candidates for cuts, but keeping TEs is easy to justify since they often contribute on special teams and could fill in at FB if needed. Personally, I'd probably like to see them go to 4 here, though I don't know who I'd cut either. Probably Taylor -- Crabtree's brawler mentality is just too sweet.

4) Keep 8 or 9 LBs -- I think the TE and LB conversations will be intertwined, since the second string guys at both positions make good special teamers. Vic So'oto appears to be the man. He is this year's Sam Shields -- an undrafted free agent rookie who could immediately become a high impact player. Don't know how Thompson finds these guys but God bless him. That leaves Frank Zombo and Robert Francois most likely on the bubble. Zombo would be a lock if it weren't for the broken shoulder blade. Very, very tough decision but I would probably let Francois go -- just doesn't seem as big impact as the other guys.

The rest of the positions, particularly on defense, seem pretty straight forward as to who will still be wearing a Packer uniform come Sunday.  I'm sure it will be a long discussion, but it will be interesting to see who stays on for the 2011 campaign.

Why Football is the Best Sport

TriggPack West team scouting the Raiders for week 14.

I attended my first NFL game in-person this week.  Granted it was a pre-season game.  Granted it was the 49ers against the Raiders in one of the most decrepit venues in the NFL, Candlestick Park.  But, after a long and uncertain off-season, I was psyched to see a game -- particularly when it was free seats in the first row on the 50-yard line, courtesy of my buddy Mark.

As I soaked in the ambiance of an NFL game, I found myself marveling at how fully awesome football is. Like a Minnesotan tucking into a deep-fried Twinkie, I just can't get enough.  I've been lapping up pre-season games with an intensity usually reserved for the playoffs. You'd think after the whole lock-out thing there might be some lingering bitterness. A slight diminishing of enthusiasm coming into the season. Instead I, like most NFL fans, am greeting the start of football like a rabid hyena clawing for zebra scraps.

It all begs the question: why exactly is football so awesome? Well, there are lots of factors, but I've boiled it down to 3 fundamental reasons.  The 3 "S's":

One thing that's not scarce: deep-friend Twinkies at Mall of America

1) Scarcity.  The fact there are only 16 games in the regular season distinguishes it from every other team sport.  No question one of the most critical factors in the NFL's success is it's scarcity.  Every single game matters, and matters greatly.  A 16-game stretch in the NBA or MLB is like a long road trip. Teams like the Mariners go on 16-game losing streaks.  The Astros are 34 games out of first place in their division.  34 games!  That's more than two full seasons of football.  Even for die-hard baseball and basketball fans, it's hard to get very worked up until the games mean something in the playoffs.  Even then, they have 7-game series -- that's half the season in football.  Soccer is worst of all.  Nobody knows when a season is even happening, and just when you think a game actually matters, it turns out to just be a friendly with all the star players off with their national teams.  A 16-game season, though my addiction wishes there were more, is perfect -- keeping us glued to every game and every play.

2) Strategy.  There is so much planning and preparation that goes into each NFL game.  Sure, other sports have "plays" too -- like when a basketball guard holds up a number 1 finger as he comes down court.  It must be hard for players to remember which of the two play options they are supposed to run.  Football teams have hundreds of plays.  For every play, eleven players on each side of the ball need to know where to go in 40 seconds.  Each play requires meticulous preparation, studying playbooks and practicing it on the field.  And each play has hundreds of hours of analysis behind it -- with dozens of coaches, scouts, and assistants combing through tape of their competition to determine the exact time to call the exact right play.  The results of all that strategic planning, and the players' ability to execute the strategy, directly determines the outcome of the game.  Unlike basketball, you can't just give the ball to LeBron James every play.

Civil War picnickers before the advent of NFL Sunday Ticket.

3) Savagery.  It's often stated that football is a violent game.  But "violence" isn't quite the right word.  "Savagery" isn't either but it starts with "S" so I'm going to use it -- plus, I think it more accurately captures what I see as the appeal of football's "physicality."  Violence to me means bloodshed and broken bones.  There are plenty of more violent sports, like UFA or pitbull fighting, that hold no widespread appeal.  No -- it's not the violence.  It's the scale of the violence.  (Maybe "Scale" would have been a better third "S.")  Nothing else offers eleven individual simultaneous hand-to-hand battles.  A one-on-one fist fight will draw a crowd, but when it's 11-on-11, or more like 45-on-45, there is some shit goin' down!  That's more akin to a bar fight.  Or a riot.  Like an army of gladiators charging at each other, you just don't turn away from football.  The scale of human conflict you are about to witness is just too fascinating.  It's like picnickers at the outbreak of the Civil War.  They were compelled to watch -- though many of them probably realized later it might have been preferable to catch that one on DirecTV.  You don't turn the channel on football.

There you have it: the three basic reasons that you'll be glued to your TV every Sunday through February.  It doesn't matter how much they strike.  It doesn't matter how much money they make.  It doesn't matter how much they mis-behave off the field.  You may be disgusted at times, but you watch.  You have to watch.  It's just too compelling.

Cobb Impresses in Packers' Pre-Season Debut

The fun thing about pre-season games is evaluating individual players. Determining which new additions to the roster might make the cut, and, more importantly, make an impact. Rookie Randall Cobb showed encouraging signs of being one of those impact players the Packers hoped he was when they drafted him.

The Kentucky product could give a real boost to our return game, which was fairly anemic last year through a rotating door of return men. Cobb had two nice kick returns out nearly to the 30 both times, and showed elusiveness and sure hands, though no yards, in his one punt return. Cobb also lead Packer receivers with 3 receptions for 60 yards, including a beautiful quick cut up the field on a 5-yard crossing pattern that netted 28 yards and nearly a TD.

Cobb could be a perfect addition to an already potent receiving corps. His speed, cutting ability and good hands will present match-up nightmares for opposing defenses. They will need to cover him with a corner, and particularly in a 4-receiver set, that corner isn't likely to be very good. Cobb will either be open or he will open up something for another receiver. And his impact on the return game could be dramatic. Even if he averages just a few more yards per return, it will make a big difference in field position. And if he breaks one or two this season for scores, those are the kind of plays that decide games.

Another player I was watching closely was Derek Sherrod. He and T.J. Lang are in a dead heat to replace Colledge at the left guard position. Sherrod looked good and sounds very comfortable at the guard position, despite playing only tackle at Mississippi State. Sherrod and Lang actually were both in the game with the second team, rotating between the left guard and tackle positions. And, with the exception of a blown blitz pick-up which resulted in a sack, fumble and return for a touchdown, they both played well. One will start and the other looks start-able should the other guy or Clifton get injured.

Other players who stood out Saturday against the Browns included James Starks -- who only had 2 carries but looked to be back into his beastly form, blowing guys backwards for gains of 5 and 9 yards. Starks is just one of those guys who seems to stride 2-3 yards with every step, breaks multiple tackles, and finishes every run falling forward for several additional yards. He and Grant will give us one of the most high-impact running back tandems in the league.

Matt Flynn also had a nice night. He finished 11/18 for 126 yards and a TD with no interceptions. He clearly has a full command of the offense, calling audibles at the line several times based on his reads. He has the arm strength and accuracy to make tough throws. And he has great poise for a young player -- efficiently leading the Packers on a 9-play, 89-yard touchdown drive with less than two minutes left before halftime. As Flynn showed last year against the Patriots, he can effectively lead the Packers in the event Rodgers goes down -- which in the era of concussion sensitivity (which I support, by the way) will be increasingly likely.

Overall, it was great to see the Packers back on the field. Although they didn't win, the only mild concern was watching the first-team defense give up a touchdown (granted, it was 3rd stringer Pat Lee who gave up the TD catch). It all whets the appetite for the regular season opener against the Saints on September 8. Can't wait!

Jones and Kuhn Staying Home

Free agency continues to be fast and furious.  Yesterday brought some good news with the re-signing of receiver James Jones and fullback John Kuhn.  Jones' return is particularly welcome news.  I thought he was all but gone, but he's back in what is shaping up to be a nasty receiving corps.  The return of all 5 WRs, plus the addition of rookie Randall Cobb, who was apparently lighting it up in practice, and the return of Jermichael Finley, should make the Packers passing game a juggernaut.

Cobb feels to me like he could have a similar impact as the Vikings' Percy Harvin, hopefully without the migraines.  Harvin had speed, quickness, and hands that enabled him to make an immediate impact and create mis-matches as DBs lined up against their bigger receivers.  I'm hoping Cobb may also be able to finally add some punch to our return game.

So far, the Packers have lost five players to free agency, including DE Cullen Jenkins (Philadelphia), guards Daryn Colledge (Arizona) and Jason Spitz (Jacksonville), RB Brandon Jackson (Cleveland) and FB Korey Hall (New Orleans).  Jenkins and Colledge are the two most concerning losses.  Replacing Jenkins worries me less.  He's 30 and has been getting injured more and more often the last few years.  Plus, with some potentially promising young DEs, including Mike Neal, C.J. Wilson and Jarius Wynn, they had some backfill.

Colledge, though un-spectacular has been steady.  And with Spitz leaving as well, their depth at offensive guard is shallow.  First-round draft pick Derek Sherrod has been practicing with the first team offense at Colledge's left guard position, and is the presumptive opening day starter -- even though he played exclusively at the left tackle position in college.  But the Packers lack many other options, besides T.J. Lang and Nick McDonald, and Sherrod sounds confident he can pick up the new role.


Not surprisingly, given Thompson's philosophy, the Packers haven't made any splashy free agency moves.  But a major difference for the Packers is the number of players they will have returning from IR.  Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, Brad Jones and Morgan Burnett are all impact players who should be back in the starting line-up week 1.  If these were all new players we'd signed via free agency, we'd all be pretty psyched.  So I don't necessarily expect or covet any big free agent signings in the next few weeks.  Instead, I look forward to seeing which young players will emerge as this year's B.J. Raji or Clay Matthews.