With Punxsutawney Phil looking for his shadow this week, it seemed like appropriate timing for a Favre post. It’s now 10 days after the Vikings lost the NFC Championship game, and, shockingly, no word from Favre yet about whether or not he will retire. It’s amazing how much passion and opinion #4 still provokes among Packer fans. Many despise him – feel he has ruined his legacy and will never forgive him for going to the Vikings. Many still love him – feel Thompson and McCarthy made the greatest mistake ever letting him go.
I mostly was the former. After the first un-retirement, I was not sorry to see Brett leave. I thought Packers management, though they created a PR mess, made the right decision to transition him out of the organization. I was appalled when Favre un-retired a second time and signed with the Vikings. I wanted him and the team to fail there, and was frustrated that he had one of his best seasons ever – beating the Packers twice. If he was still capable of playing like that, why didn’t he do it his last 5 seasons in Green Bay?
But Sunday’s game really gave me a new adjective to describe Brett’s career: tragic. I firmly believe that all the drama, the flip-flopping, the back-stabbing, the waffling, the un-retirements, the angst-laden press conferences, the incredible will to win this season, etc. was driven by one thing: Brett couldn’t stand that the last play of his NFL career was an interception that cost his team a trip to the Super Bowl.
This play, which is etched on the brain of every Packer fan, is chiseled from granite, outlined in spray paint, burned by blow torch, and filled in with blood in Brett Favre’s brain.
It was his chance to go out on top. His chance to do what John Elway did to him – win a Super Bowl and ride off into the sunset. And it was gone in one play; one under-thrown pass. It was a play that set off a series of events that ended his career in Green Bay.
Two years later, in the face of all the prognosticators and haters who never thought he could do it again, he managed to reach that same precipice of opportunity. He burned every bridge. He betrayed the city that made him who he is – all for that last shot. And in the end, the final result was the same: his last play was an interception that cost his team a trip to the Super Bowl.
Tragic. As desperately as I wanted the Vikings to lose that game, I couldn’t help but feel sorry for Favre. In the same game, he reminded us why he was so great – his toughness, his competitiveness, his will to win – and why he was so flawed. Whether he finally calls it quits or not this year, his legacy is increasingly written as the guy who cost his team the big game.
Of course, Favre has done innumerable great things in his career. And he could follow the lead of Kurt Warner and retire gracefully. I’m not sure he can – not sure if his own compulsive drive and the ghosts of those two games will let him. But I hope he does.
All I know is our quarterback started the Pro Bowl this year, and the Vikings quarterback next year could be starting Sage Rosenfels. Good luck with your off-season Vikings fans.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
And... Cut!
It seems so abrupt. The end of a season, that is. One play and it's all snuffed out. The months of preparation, hardship, anticipation -- all, in the end, feels like it didn't matter. It still feels surreal that we won’t be playing next weekend. I guess I really can go get that haircut now.
Rather than my usual “three observations”, I thought I’d go with something that Packer fans will, hopefully, find therapeutic in the aftermath of this devastating loss. So I give you my seven stages of Packer playoff grieving, as a template for how you might cope with this tragedy yourself. At the very least, through the telling of my experience, you can take comfort in the fact you're not alone.
7 Stages of Packer Playoff Grieving
Stage 1: Shock – There is no better word to characterize my reaction to that final play. Pure, slack-jawed shock. My brain literally couldn’t process what my eyes had just seen. I was so certain, after Rackers shanked the field goal in regulation, after winning the coin toss to receive the ball, after nearly hitting Jennings for a TD on the first play of OT, that we were going to win that game, that I just couldn’t accept, for several minutes, what had just transpired.
Stage 2: Denial – With my Tivo remote clenched in my hand, I rewound the final play, whispering “no, no, no…” That didn’t just happen. This is a bad dream. They must have missed something. Wasn’t there a penalty somewhere? Shouldn’t there have been an instant replay?? Wasn’t there something that was going to reverse what I had just witnessed!?!? The Packers were supposed to win that game. Everyone thought so. Last weekend, the Cardinals themselves looked like they'd ceded a loss. Hell, many of the experts were picking Green Bay to go to the Super Bowl. This couldn’t have happened!
Stage 3: Anger – As I prepared to hurtle the remote control through our 40” plasma, my wife gently reminded me to “model good behavior” for my two sons who were lagging behind a little in the Shock and Denial phases. (By the way, it's very difficult to calmly answer the question, “Daddy, does this mean the Packers are out of the playoffs?”). So, with a clenched, maniacal pseudo-grin, I proceeded to explain to my offspring why daddy was “disappointed” in the following people:
Stage 4: Bargaining – Then, it occurred to me, the real reason the Packers lost was due to blown calls by the officials. It was so obvious! First, there was Fitzgerald’s overt shove of Woodson to free himself up for a touchdown. Then, of course, in the final series of overtime, the refs missed a blatant helmet-to-helmet hit on Rodgers that should have drawn a personal foul. And on the final and fateful play of the game, they inexplicably missed a facemask on Rodgers which helped force the fumble, which is obvious in this photo. Interesting analysis of these missed calls here.
This was simple. We’d just call up Roger Goodell, and politely point out that the refs may have possibly over-looked some penalties that could have changed the entire outcome of the game. He would, very rationally upon seeing the review, agree and declare Green Bay the winner. Does anyone have Roger's number?
Stage 5: Guilt – My anger phase was coming back to haunt me. How could I have said that about Aaron Rodgers!? The guy went off for 422 yards and four touchdowns – setting a team playoff record for passing yards and tying it for touchdowns. Better than Brett ever played. What an ungrateful fan I was for expecting him to shoulder even more than he already had.
I also felt guilty that I had infected my own children with this disease, this obsession. I’d set them up for disappointment. I couldn’t stand the looks on their faces, huddled quietly on the couch in their Packers jerseys.
Stage 6: Depression – The futility of my emotional roller coaster set in on Monday morning. This season just felt like such a lost opportunity – such a promising team that was tragically cut off before their time. It was like euthanizing your dog you’ve played fetch with every Sunday afternoon. You know there’s going to be this big empty void, as you eagerly reach for the remote next weekend only to remember… they’re gone. Will they be able to field a team this good next year? How will they fill the gaps? What if Rodgers or Woodson gets injured next year and they tank? You need to seize opportunities like this when you get them, and we didn’t.
I was bitter about the in-authenticity of Cardinal fans, gloating over the victory of their transplanted team under their retractable roof. I was sullen about the other teams who were advancing while the Packers cleaned out their lockers. I was sickened by the thought of reading, listening or watching any news about the Packers. I do this every year – over-indulge in every bit of Packers news I can get my hands on like a Minnesota truck driver at Old Country Buffet, and then, when the Packers season ends, I’m suddenly repulsed by it. Packer news that was so titillating two days ago looks no more appealing than the crusted over day-old lasagna at Sbarro. I can’t eat another bite, and I regret my gluttony in the first place.
Stage 7: Acceptance – I’m not sure “acceptance” is a stage I’ve ever been able to fully achieve with the Packers playoff losses. The overtime loss to the Giants in the 2007 NFC Championship game, the Randy Moss mock-moon in the 2004 wild-card loss to the Vikings, the infamous “4th and 26” loss to the Eagles in 2003, the Michael Vick-led blow-out by the Falcons in 2002, Favre’s six interceptions in the Rams dismantling of the Packers in 2001, the last-second catch by Terrell Owens to propel the 49ers past us in 1998, and, of course, the Super Bowl loss to Denver in 1997. All these games are etched on my brain like they were yesterday. Losing seasons aren’t as painful or memorable for some reason. It’s getting your hopes up, as mine were each of those playoff years, only to have them shattered that makes them so hard to accept.
But it’s time to pick up the pieces of the 2009 season and look forward to 2010. We have a great, young nucleus of a team. There are certainly several holes that need to be filled (more on that later), but I believe this will be a learning experience for the team – and one they will come back to avenge next year.
Rather than my usual “three observations”, I thought I’d go with something that Packer fans will, hopefully, find therapeutic in the aftermath of this devastating loss. So I give you my seven stages of Packer playoff grieving, as a template for how you might cope with this tragedy yourself. At the very least, through the telling of my experience, you can take comfort in the fact you're not alone.
7 Stages of Packer Playoff Grieving
Stage 1: Shock – There is no better word to characterize my reaction to that final play. Pure, slack-jawed shock. My brain literally couldn’t process what my eyes had just seen. I was so certain, after Rackers shanked the field goal in regulation, after winning the coin toss to receive the ball, after nearly hitting Jennings for a TD on the first play of OT, that we were going to win that game, that I just couldn’t accept, for several minutes, what had just transpired.
Stage 2: Denial – With my Tivo remote clenched in my hand, I rewound the final play, whispering “no, no, no…” That didn’t just happen. This is a bad dream. They must have missed something. Wasn’t there a penalty somewhere? Shouldn’t there have been an instant replay?? Wasn’t there something that was going to reverse what I had just witnessed!?!? The Packers were supposed to win that game. Everyone thought so. Last weekend, the Cardinals themselves looked like they'd ceded a loss. Hell, many of the experts were picking Green Bay to go to the Super Bowl. This couldn’t have happened!
Stage 3: Anger – As I prepared to hurtle the remote control through our 40” plasma, my wife gently reminded me to “model good behavior” for my two sons who were lagging behind a little in the Shock and Denial phases. (By the way, it's very difficult to calmly answer the question, “Daddy, does this mean the Packers are out of the playoffs?”). So, with a clenched, maniacal pseudo-grin, I proceeded to explain to my offspring why daddy was “disappointed” in the following people:
- Dom Capers who seemed to think a game-plan was un-necessary and evidently lost his notes on the back of a Southwest cocktail napkin from the week earlier. His so-called #2 defense got rung up for 531 yards, 45 points (I won't count the defensive TD), and managed to force only one punt. Embarrassing.
- Aaron Rodgers for throwing an interception on the opening play, over-throwing Jennings twice on a pass that “daddy could have thrown”, and assisting Karlos Dansby with the final interception with his foot.
- Tramon Williams, Jarrett Bush, Josh Bell, some guy named Giordano, and anyone else they threw out there to play in the defensive secondary for failing to get within 5 yards of an open receiver. When someone named Early Doucet snags 6 catches for 77 yards and 2 TDs, someone "didn't do a very good job."
- The entire defensive line for getting zero pressure on Warner all day and allowing 156 rushing yards, including an 18-yard scramble by some dude named Stephens-Howling.
- The entire offensive line for giving up 5 sacks, including the game loser.
- Every NFL analyst who picked the Packers to go to the Super Bowl and got my hopes up
- Troy Aikman for relentlessly mis-pronouncing our city Green Bay and the razor-sharp insight that “The Packers defense needs to show they can stop the Cardinals here.”
- Brett Favre, just because.
- Myself for wasting many late-night person hours this fall writing this dumb ass blog.
This was simple. We’d just call up Roger Goodell, and politely point out that the refs may have possibly over-looked some penalties that could have changed the entire outcome of the game. He would, very rationally upon seeing the review, agree and declare Green Bay the winner. Does anyone have Roger's number?
Stage 5: Guilt – My anger phase was coming back to haunt me. How could I have said that about Aaron Rodgers!? The guy went off for 422 yards and four touchdowns – setting a team playoff record for passing yards and tying it for touchdowns. Better than Brett ever played. What an ungrateful fan I was for expecting him to shoulder even more than he already had.
I also felt guilty that I had infected my own children with this disease, this obsession. I’d set them up for disappointment. I couldn’t stand the looks on their faces, huddled quietly on the couch in their Packers jerseys.
Stage 6: Depression – The futility of my emotional roller coaster set in on Monday morning. This season just felt like such a lost opportunity – such a promising team that was tragically cut off before their time. It was like euthanizing your dog you’ve played fetch with every Sunday afternoon. You know there’s going to be this big empty void, as you eagerly reach for the remote next weekend only to remember… they’re gone. Will they be able to field a team this good next year? How will they fill the gaps? What if Rodgers or Woodson gets injured next year and they tank? You need to seize opportunities like this when you get them, and we didn’t.
I was bitter about the in-authenticity of Cardinal fans, gloating over the victory of their transplanted team under their retractable roof. I was sullen about the other teams who were advancing while the Packers cleaned out their lockers. I was sickened by the thought of reading, listening or watching any news about the Packers. I do this every year – over-indulge in every bit of Packers news I can get my hands on like a Minnesota truck driver at Old Country Buffet, and then, when the Packers season ends, I’m suddenly repulsed by it. Packer news that was so titillating two days ago looks no more appealing than the crusted over day-old lasagna at Sbarro. I can’t eat another bite, and I regret my gluttony in the first place.
Stage 7: Acceptance – I’m not sure “acceptance” is a stage I’ve ever been able to fully achieve with the Packers playoff losses. The overtime loss to the Giants in the 2007 NFC Championship game, the Randy Moss mock-moon in the 2004 wild-card loss to the Vikings, the infamous “4th and 26” loss to the Eagles in 2003, the Michael Vick-led blow-out by the Falcons in 2002, Favre’s six interceptions in the Rams dismantling of the Packers in 2001, the last-second catch by Terrell Owens to propel the 49ers past us in 1998, and, of course, the Super Bowl loss to Denver in 1997. All these games are etched on my brain like they were yesterday. Losing seasons aren’t as painful or memorable for some reason. It’s getting your hopes up, as mine were each of those playoff years, only to have them shattered that makes them so hard to accept.
But it’s time to pick up the pieces of the 2009 season and look forward to 2010. We have a great, young nucleus of a team. There are certainly several holes that need to be filled (more on that later), but I believe this will be a learning experience for the team – and one they will come back to avenge next year.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Devastated
Many frustrated thoughts going through my head, but emotional state still too fragile to write. The prevailing question: how does the #2 offense in the NFL give up 500+ yards of total offense, 51 points, and only force one punt. Ridiculous. More to come once I regain my composure.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Great finish to the regular season
I can’t wait for this weekend’s game. Ironically, the last time I felt this optimistic about the Packers was after their blowout against these same Cardinals in the pre-season. We’ve put together two very impressive games in the desert, and I hope it will be a third this Sunday.
A Packer buddy of mine re-sent an article this week by Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel beat writer Bob McGinn back in September. In it, he makes remarkably accurate predictions for the Packer season so far. I encourage you to read it (despite the antiquated and annoying requirement to pay for access). Let’s hope he keeps his accuracy through the playoffs, which he predicted would lead to a Super Bowl berth.
The victory over the Cardinals Sunday was a satisfying cap to a great regular season. It was really remarkable to watch the team solidify over the last 8 games, finishing the season 7 of 8 with their only loss on a one-in-a-million drive by Pittsburgh. After the Bucs loss in week 8, it felt like this could be another season like last year – spinning out of control in the second half of the schedule to finish a disappointing 6-10. Instead, Green Bay took it the other way, and not only finished the season strong, but is entering the playoffs with a head of steam.
What made the Packers second-half of the season so strong? Here are my observations for the biggest changes that enabled the Packers to improve so significantly.
1) Pass Protection – we still gave up more sacks this season (51) than any other team in the league, but this was a significant area of improvement in the second half of the season. I was extremely skeptical in week 8 that the Packers would be able to fix their pass protection problems, but they did. Tauscher got back into form. Clifton got healthy. But more than anything, they ended the deck chair shuffling and started to gel as a unit. Plus, shorter pass plays, quicker decisions by Rodgers, and improved blitz pick-ups by our backs also all helped.
1) Jermichael Finley – not only was it a win against the same team and the same place, but the same player (Finley) and same play (a jump ball in the right corner of the endzone) was what made me so optimistic back in the pre-season. With the exception of the Vikings game in week 4 (6 receptions for 128 yds and a TD), Finley got off to a slow start. Then he missed 3 games due to injury. Since he’s been back, he’s been a force.
3) Clay Matthews and Brad Jones – If you had told me at the start of the season we’d have two rookie linebackers, added to an already deep linebacking corps, not only starting but emerging as impact players, I would have been stunned. I would have a man-crush on Matthews even if he didn’t have the hair. The guy had 10 sacks on the season. 10 sacks as a rookie! Jones has 4 sacks since coming in for Kampman. It was unfortunate to see Kampman go down, but he’d only logged 3.5 sacks to that point in the season. Poppinga had none in the 3 games he started.
5) Player Leadership – Finally, though it’s hard to quantify in the statistics, Aaron Rodgers on offense and Charles Woodson on defense have fully stepped into the critical leadership roles they needed to play. After the loss to the Bucs, these guys stepped up and took responsibility, but also demanded more from their teammates. Both are playing very confident ball, and, deservedly, are Pro-Bowl bound.
I have every reason to believe that the Cardinals will come out fighting on Sunday, but if the Packers can continue to do these things that nearly got them a perfect schedule in the second half of the season, I like their chances to do some damage.
A Packer buddy of mine re-sent an article this week by Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel beat writer Bob McGinn back in September. In it, he makes remarkably accurate predictions for the Packer season so far. I encourage you to read it (despite the antiquated and annoying requirement to pay for access). Let’s hope he keeps his accuracy through the playoffs, which he predicted would lead to a Super Bowl berth.
The victory over the Cardinals Sunday was a satisfying cap to a great regular season. It was really remarkable to watch the team solidify over the last 8 games, finishing the season 7 of 8 with their only loss on a one-in-a-million drive by Pittsburgh. After the Bucs loss in week 8, it felt like this could be another season like last year – spinning out of control in the second half of the schedule to finish a disappointing 6-10. Instead, Green Bay took it the other way, and not only finished the season strong, but is entering the playoffs with a head of steam.
What made the Packers second-half of the season so strong? Here are my observations for the biggest changes that enabled the Packers to improve so significantly.
1) Pass Protection – we still gave up more sacks this season (51) than any other team in the league, but this was a significant area of improvement in the second half of the season. I was extremely skeptical in week 8 that the Packers would be able to fix their pass protection problems, but they did. Tauscher got back into form. Clifton got healthy. But more than anything, they ended the deck chair shuffling and started to gel as a unit. Plus, shorter pass plays, quicker decisions by Rodgers, and improved blitz pick-ups by our backs also all helped.
- Sacks allowed in the first 8 games: 37 (4.6/game)
- Sacks allowed in the last 8 games: 14 (1.75/game)
1) Jermichael Finley – not only was it a win against the same team and the same place, but the same player (Finley) and same play (a jump ball in the right corner of the endzone) was what made me so optimistic back in the pre-season. With the exception of the Vikings game in week 4 (6 receptions for 128 yds and a TD), Finley got off to a slow start. Then he missed 3 games due to injury. Since he’s been back, he’s been a force.
- Finley’s stats in the first 8 games: 17 receptions, 260 yds, 1 TD
- Finley’s stats in the last 8 games: 38 receptions, 416 yds, 4 TDs
3) Clay Matthews and Brad Jones – If you had told me at the start of the season we’d have two rookie linebackers, added to an already deep linebacking corps, not only starting but emerging as impact players, I would have been stunned. I would have a man-crush on Matthews even if he didn’t have the hair. The guy had 10 sacks on the season. 10 sacks as a rookie! Jones has 4 sacks since coming in for Kampman. It was unfortunate to see Kampman go down, but he’d only logged 3.5 sacks to that point in the season. Poppinga had none in the 3 games he started.
- Sacks by Kampman and Poppinga in the first 8 games: 2.5
- Sacks by Matthews and Jones in the last 8 games: 11
5) Player Leadership – Finally, though it’s hard to quantify in the statistics, Aaron Rodgers on offense and Charles Woodson on defense have fully stepped into the critical leadership roles they needed to play. After the loss to the Bucs, these guys stepped up and took responsibility, but also demanded more from their teammates. Both are playing very confident ball, and, deservedly, are Pro-Bowl bound.
I have every reason to believe that the Cardinals will come out fighting on Sunday, but if the Packers can continue to do these things that nearly got them a perfect schedule in the second half of the season, I like their chances to do some damage.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Playoff Preview
With a playoff berth sealed, it’s not too early for a playoff preview. Though this last game against the Cardinals is meaningless from the standpoint of making the playoffs, it is very relevant from the standpoint of maximizing the Packers’ playoff run because it, and two other games played on Sunday, will decide the final playoff seeding. Plus, it’s a chance to get some practice against our most likely first-round opponent, Arizona.
Before getting to that though, let me get the coulda/woulda/shoulda out of the way... the Vikings are only ahead of us by one game!! If we could have just split 1-1 with them, or if San Fran or Baltimore could have beaten the Vikings earlier this season, or if we’d beaten Tampa Bay, we’d be tied going into the last game of the season with a first-round bye within our reach! Ugh… Oh well, back to reality.
Everyone has been assuming for weeks that it would be the Saints and the Vikings who get the first-round bye. But thanks to the Vikings recent losing streak (did I mention how much I LOVE Jay Cutler!?!?!), they no longer control their own destiny. If the Eagles beat the Cowboys Sunday, they take the NFC East, the #2 seed, and the first-round bye away from Brent and company... which would be sweet!
Week 17, as far as the Packers are concerned, boils down to three games: Packers at Cardinals (of course), Giants at Vikings, and Eagles at Cowboys. My Tivo will be recording all three. The Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys and even Cardinals could all earn a first-round bye still. The Packers cannot.
Of the three games that matter Sunday, there are eight possible outcomes. In 6 of the 8 possible outcomes, we go on the road to play Arizona for a second week in a row. But there is a 1 in 8 chance of going to Dallas, and even a 1 in 8 chance of going to Minnesota. Here are the possible outcomes, who the Packers would consequently play, and what the playoff seedings would be:
1) Packers win, Giants win, Eagles win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Eagles #2, Vikings #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Cowboys #6)
2) Packers win, Vikings win, Cowboys win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Vikings #2, Cowboys #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Eagles #6)
3) Packers win, Giants win, Cowboys win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Cowboys #2, Vikings #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Eagles #6)
4) Packers win, Vikings win, Eagles win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Eagles #2, Vikings #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Cowboys #6)
5) Cardinals win, Giants win, Eagles win – Packers @ Vikings
(Eagles #2, Cardinals #3, Vikings #4, Packers #5, Cowboys #6)
6) Cardinals win, Giants win, Cowboys win – Packers @ Cowboys
(Cardinals #2, Cowboys #3, Vikings #4, Eagles #5, Packers #6)
7) Cardinals win, Vikings win, Eagles win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Eagles #2, Vikings #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Cowboys #6)
8) Cardinals win, Vikings win, Cowboys win – Packers @ Cardinals
Vikings #2, Eagles #5, Cardinals #3, Packers #6, Cowboys #4
Four weeks ago, the Saints and Vikings both seemed a foregone conclusion to go to the NFC championship game. But after a rocky December for both clubs, those teams seem very beatable now. In fact, who really scares you in the NFC? The Packers are playing football as good as anyone right now, but they, like every team, have vulnerabilities as well.
What makes me think the Packers could go far in the post-season:
PS – I still haven’t cut my hair.
Before getting to that though, let me get the coulda/woulda/shoulda out of the way... the Vikings are only ahead of us by one game!! If we could have just split 1-1 with them, or if San Fran or Baltimore could have beaten the Vikings earlier this season, or if we’d beaten Tampa Bay, we’d be tied going into the last game of the season with a first-round bye within our reach! Ugh… Oh well, back to reality.
Everyone has been assuming for weeks that it would be the Saints and the Vikings who get the first-round bye. But thanks to the Vikings recent losing streak (did I mention how much I LOVE Jay Cutler!?!?!), they no longer control their own destiny. If the Eagles beat the Cowboys Sunday, they take the NFC East, the #2 seed, and the first-round bye away from Brent and company... which would be sweet!
Week 17, as far as the Packers are concerned, boils down to three games: Packers at Cardinals (of course), Giants at Vikings, and Eagles at Cowboys. My Tivo will be recording all three. The Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys and even Cardinals could all earn a first-round bye still. The Packers cannot.
Of the three games that matter Sunday, there are eight possible outcomes. In 6 of the 8 possible outcomes, we go on the road to play Arizona for a second week in a row. But there is a 1 in 8 chance of going to Dallas, and even a 1 in 8 chance of going to Minnesota. Here are the possible outcomes, who the Packers would consequently play, and what the playoff seedings would be:
1) Packers win, Giants win, Eagles win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Eagles #2, Vikings #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Cowboys #6)
2) Packers win, Vikings win, Cowboys win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Vikings #2, Cowboys #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Eagles #6)
3) Packers win, Giants win, Cowboys win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Cowboys #2, Vikings #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Eagles #6)
4) Packers win, Vikings win, Eagles win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Eagles #2, Vikings #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Cowboys #6)
5) Cardinals win, Giants win, Eagles win – Packers @ Vikings
(Eagles #2, Cardinals #3, Vikings #4, Packers #5, Cowboys #6)
6) Cardinals win, Giants win, Cowboys win – Packers @ Cowboys
(Cardinals #2, Cowboys #3, Vikings #4, Eagles #5, Packers #6)
7) Cardinals win, Vikings win, Eagles win – Packers @ Cardinals
(Eagles #2, Vikings #3, Cardinals #4, Packers #5, Cowboys #6)
8) Cardinals win, Vikings win, Cowboys win – Packers @ Cardinals
Vikings #2, Eagles #5, Cardinals #3, Packers #6, Cowboys #4
Four weeks ago, the Saints and Vikings both seemed a foregone conclusion to go to the NFC championship game. But after a rocky December for both clubs, those teams seem very beatable now. In fact, who really scares you in the NFC? The Packers are playing football as good as anyone right now, but they, like every team, have vulnerabilities as well.
What makes me think the Packers could go far in the post-season:
- Consistent, stable QB – Rodgers makes great decisions, is unflappable, and doesn’t lose games with INTs (one of two QBs with no interceptions on 3rd down this season). He can beat anyone.
- Emerging rushing game – Grant has busted long runs for TDs in each of the last three games. Jackson and Green have established themselves as viable threats. Together, if they can rush the ball and control the clock, they will win games.
- Stud receivers – Jennings has really come on lately as the deep threat he was last season. Driver is solid, as always. James Jones and Jordy Nelson are playing great. But, most of all, Jermichael Finley has grown into the match-up nightmare Packer fans have been predicting since the pre-season.
- Turnover ratio – Green Bay is +22 on turnovers this season, #1 in the NFL. They have 37 takeaways and have only given it up 15 times. If they can sustain that ratio in the playoffs, they have a great chance to go far.
- #1 run defense – Green Bay is allowing just 85.7 yards per game rushing (improved from 26th last year). The ability to stop guys like Adrian Peterson, Marion Barber, and Brian Westbrook will be key to advancing in the playoffs.
- Offensive line – though it is radically improved, the Packers still are vulnerable on pass protection. Even the Seahawks managed to get pressure. The Vikings, Eagles, and Cowboys can all apply a wicked pass rush.
- Defensive secondary – I’m feeling better about Tramon Williams in place of Harris, but Jarrett Bush and Josh Bell still make me nervous against deep receiving corps – and the Cardinals, Saints, Vikings and Eagles all have the receivers to create problems for us.
- Kicking game – It was nice to see Mason Crosby go 2/2 on field goals (and 6/6 on PATs) Sunday, but the kicking game still makes me very nervous. I will be on egg shells if we are relying on Mason to win a playoff game late or in OT.
- Penalties – though this has been cleaned up a little recently, the Packers are still the most penalized team in the NFL and the second-most in penalty yards. If they can’t keep the mistakes to a minimum, it will cost them.
PS – I still haven’t cut my hair.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Playoff Bound!
So it’s official – the Packers are back in the playoffs. I’ve been wanting to predict this since week 13, but fear of jinxing their chances has kept me from going on record. It really would have taken an Eric Mangini-esque meltdown for the Packers not to make the playoffs (or is it a Brett Favre-esque meltdown?). But it’s nice that it’s now official.
Before getting on to the playoff preview (which I’ll put in my next post), let me first give my quick three observations of Sunday’s mangling of the Seahawks:
1) 4 interceptions. The defense was back in rare form this week, bouncing back from their over 500-yard day last week to allow only 198 yards passing this week. Hasselbeck may be the only quarterback I look forward to the Packers playing against more than Cutler. His infamous “we want the ball, and we’re going to score” blunder in the wild card game on January 4, 2004 is one of my favorite in-your-face moments in Lambeau history. He has to shudder every time he’s in Green Bay, as visions of this moment in NFL history haunt his thoughts.
I’m not sure Hasselbeck has ever repaired his sports ego after that play. Clearly, late season in Lambeau is a problem for him still six years later. His four interceptions on the day not only took points off the board for the Seahawks, but led to 21 points for Green Bay. Atari had two (and, I have to say, should have gotten some Pro Bowl consideration), A.J. Hawk got one as he continues to show he can excel in the 3-4 scheme, and even Jarrett Bush redeemed himself after last week with an interception.
If the defense plays this way in the post-season, they are going to create problems for teams. They’re fast. They’re creative in their schemes. And they’re absolute ball hawks. Tramon Williams matured quickly after Harris went down. Despite my berating last week, Bush may be coming up the learning curve quickly as well. If they can just stay tough in the secondary (and teams like the Cardinals will be a good test of that), they’ll be in good shape.
2) 5 rushing touchdowns. Call it exploiting your opponent’s weakness or learning from your mistakes, but I was glad to see the Packers get back to the running game this week after completely neglecting it against the Steelers. Grant, Jackson and Green looked like a three-headed monster – combining for 153 yards and five touchdowns. Grant’s latest demonstration of his break-out ability, with his 53-yard scamper to pay dirt, is bringing a new threat to the Packers offense. As much as I love watching Rodgers spread the field with the passing game, it is a bruising, physical rushing game that will make the biggest difference in the post-season.
3) Aaron Rodgers. I want to highlight Rodgers, in particular, on a week when he was un-spectacular. For him, it was a modest performance – a mere 237 yards and 1 TD. But in a game in which the opposing QB showed how to lose a game with turnovers, Rodgers had none – no interceptions, and one fumble which was recovered.
Quarterbacks can win games, and quarterbacks can lose games. Aaron Rodgers rarely, rarely, loses a game with stupid decisions. He never lets his ego, his insistence on being the center of attention, cost his team a victory. He takes what the defense gives him, then he takes a little more. He doesn’t force, but he’s not tentative. His performance Sunday made him the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for over 4,000 yards in his first two seasons as a starter. And he is certainly deserving of his first of what will, hopefully, be many Pro Bowl selections. I’m sure Brett will be all grins and giggles with him in Miami.
Before getting on to the playoff preview (which I’ll put in my next post), let me first give my quick three observations of Sunday’s mangling of the Seahawks:
1) 4 interceptions. The defense was back in rare form this week, bouncing back from their over 500-yard day last week to allow only 198 yards passing this week. Hasselbeck may be the only quarterback I look forward to the Packers playing against more than Cutler. His infamous “we want the ball, and we’re going to score” blunder in the wild card game on January 4, 2004 is one of my favorite in-your-face moments in Lambeau history. He has to shudder every time he’s in Green Bay, as visions of this moment in NFL history haunt his thoughts.
I’m not sure Hasselbeck has ever repaired his sports ego after that play. Clearly, late season in Lambeau is a problem for him still six years later. His four interceptions on the day not only took points off the board for the Seahawks, but led to 21 points for Green Bay. Atari had two (and, I have to say, should have gotten some Pro Bowl consideration), A.J. Hawk got one as he continues to show he can excel in the 3-4 scheme, and even Jarrett Bush redeemed himself after last week with an interception.
If the defense plays this way in the post-season, they are going to create problems for teams. They’re fast. They’re creative in their schemes. And they’re absolute ball hawks. Tramon Williams matured quickly after Harris went down. Despite my berating last week, Bush may be coming up the learning curve quickly as well. If they can just stay tough in the secondary (and teams like the Cardinals will be a good test of that), they’ll be in good shape.
2) 5 rushing touchdowns. Call it exploiting your opponent’s weakness or learning from your mistakes, but I was glad to see the Packers get back to the running game this week after completely neglecting it against the Steelers. Grant, Jackson and Green looked like a three-headed monster – combining for 153 yards and five touchdowns. Grant’s latest demonstration of his break-out ability, with his 53-yard scamper to pay dirt, is bringing a new threat to the Packers offense. As much as I love watching Rodgers spread the field with the passing game, it is a bruising, physical rushing game that will make the biggest difference in the post-season.
3) Aaron Rodgers. I want to highlight Rodgers, in particular, on a week when he was un-spectacular. For him, it was a modest performance – a mere 237 yards and 1 TD. But in a game in which the opposing QB showed how to lose a game with turnovers, Rodgers had none – no interceptions, and one fumble which was recovered.
Quarterbacks can win games, and quarterbacks can lose games. Aaron Rodgers rarely, rarely, loses a game with stupid decisions. He never lets his ego, his insistence on being the center of attention, cost his team a victory. He takes what the defense gives him, then he takes a little more. He doesn’t force, but he’s not tentative. His performance Sunday made him the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for over 4,000 yards in his first two seasons as a starter. And he is certainly deserving of his first of what will, hopefully, be many Pro Bowl selections. I’m sure Brett will be all grins and giggles with him in Miami.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
I guess I can cut my hair now
It really wasn’t until the Steelers' opening offensive play for a 60-yard touchdown that it dawned on me that our defense matches up terribly against Pittsburgh. Despite a lingering, outdated reputation as a rushing offense, the Steelers are actually a pass-first spread offense with several quality receivers and a Pro Bowl quarterback. What struck me as Wallace took that first pass into the end zone is Green Bay simply doesn’t have the depth in the defensive backfield to match up. Like that alert snap to attention you have when you see a highway patrol while going 85, I instantly had a pit in my stomach as I realized we were finally going to be exploited for the obvious weakness in our #2-ranked defense since Al Harris went down. So that’s where I need to start my weekly observations.
1) 503 passing yards. Wow. Franchise record for Roethlisberger, and they’ve been a franchise for a long time. The Packers came in with the 3rd-ranked pass defense in the league, but the Steelers had an answer: get Jarrett Bush on the field. We’re now the 11th-ranked pass defense. Most teams refer to a 5-defensive back formation as the “nickel”, but defensive coordinator Dom Capers, in keeping with his creative scheme names, refers to it as the “Oh, @#$%! I have to put in Bush!” Or just “@#$%!” for short.
On both his plays giving up 50+ yards, Bush displayed the confident technique of veteran corners around the league – wildly flailing your arms with your back to the ball. “We’ve been working on ‘flail’ technique all season,” said Green Bay cornerbacks coach Joe Whitt. Bush could have been the hero, with an interception on the Steelers’ final drive. But, alas, it was nullified by Chillar’s illegal contact penalty – instead providing Bush with the opportunity to give up one more big play, allowing Heath Miller to convert on 3rd and 15. One player glad to see Bush on the field more was Tramon Williams. “At least it’s not my ass on SportsCenter this week,” said Williams after the game.
In the final series, the Packers dug even deeper into the playbook. Most teams call their 6-DB defense the “dime”, but, again, Dom has his own unique nomenclature, referring to it instead as the “Who the hell is that dude?!?” package. Previously reserved for pick-up games at company picnics, the scheme starts with an audible – something like, “Hey, what’s-your-name… yeah, you there… no, to the left of the Gatorade cooler… Josh Bush? Jarrett Bell? Whatever. Think you can cover that guy?”
Evidently, the answer was no in the final play. You certainly can’t put all (or really even much) of the blame on Bell – most of the rest of the backfield was responsible for the other 485 yards given up through the air Sunday. But the reality, if you watch that play again, is if Bell turns around he intercepts that ball. As Roethlisberger said in the post game, “We always say, if the guys’ got his back to me there’s two shoulders I can throw at.” [PS – that last quote is real. As painful as it is to watch, there’s a good breakdown of that final Steelers drive on NFL.com]
The rest of the defense played pretty well. We got pretty consistent pressure; including 5 sacks (really 6 + a forced fumble – more on that later). I probably would have been more aggressive with the blitzes in the final drive – particularly on that 4th and 7 deep in Steelers territory. But that would be largely second-guessing. If the Bush interception hadn’t been nullified by penalty, then I probably would have thought rushing 3 and dropping 8 was the right call. But if you drop 8, you need to cover people, which they didn’t.
2) 9 rushing plays. This was really surprising to me, particularly since we’d done so much to establish a balanced attack the last few weeks. McCarthy didn’t dial up any running plays in the first two series, both of which went 3 and out The Steelers have shown themselves to be vulnerable to the run. The touchdown scamper by Grant confirmed that vulnerability. And an effective running game is a great way to stifle the blitzes they were throwing at us from the first play.
I can understand the thinking that the Steelers defensive secondary is pretty weak, particularly with Polumalu out. But 48 passes to 9 runs? That’s really lopsided. Particularly in a road game against a hot quarterback who you want to keep off the field. In fact, that play calling was almost a textbook example of how not to start a game on the road:
3) Winning close games. I just wrote a thoughtful and well-researched (if I may say so myself) article on this exact subject. Games like this are heartbreakers to lose. But every game from here on out is going to be like this – hard fought and down to the wire. Winning or losing will boil down to one or two guys making plays. Not to call guys out, but here are all the individual players/plays that could have given us a victory Sunday:
Of course, there were also many players who did make big plays. Rodgers, of course, as always was money. Greg Jennings's long touchdown run was beautiful. Jermichael Finley continues to step up and had a fantastic touchdown catch. And I have to call out, yet again, Clay Matthews. He’s nominated for Rookie of the Week again. The outstanding sack/forced fumble/recovery that he had was as impressive an individual effort as I can remember seeing. The fact that play was reversed in replay is a travesty. If it had stood, that would have not only set up a score, potentially changing the outcome, but it would have been one of the main highlights of the game – likely catapulting him to the front-runner for defensive rookie of the year. I watched that replay again and again, and they absolutely robbed him of that play. I can’t understand what the ref was looking at to see “indisputable evidence” to overturn it. Matthews also deserves credit for disrupting the onsides kick towards the end, forcing the Steelers to touch the ball before it went 10 yards. He’s always near the ball.
The biggest bummer of the Packers loss? I don’t get to grow my hair long any more. I thought about amending my earlier pledge – something like “as long as the Packers are still in the playoff hunt and haven’t lost a game by more than 3 points.” But that feels forced, doesn’t it. So I guess I’ll have to get it cut at some point…
1) 503 passing yards. Wow. Franchise record for Roethlisberger, and they’ve been a franchise for a long time. The Packers came in with the 3rd-ranked pass defense in the league, but the Steelers had an answer: get Jarrett Bush on the field. We’re now the 11th-ranked pass defense. Most teams refer to a 5-defensive back formation as the “nickel”, but defensive coordinator Dom Capers, in keeping with his creative scheme names, refers to it as the “Oh, @#$%! I have to put in Bush!” Or just “@#$%!” for short.
On both his plays giving up 50+ yards, Bush displayed the confident technique of veteran corners around the league – wildly flailing your arms with your back to the ball. “We’ve been working on ‘flail’ technique all season,” said Green Bay cornerbacks coach Joe Whitt. Bush could have been the hero, with an interception on the Steelers’ final drive. But, alas, it was nullified by Chillar’s illegal contact penalty – instead providing Bush with the opportunity to give up one more big play, allowing Heath Miller to convert on 3rd and 15. One player glad to see Bush on the field more was Tramon Williams. “At least it’s not my ass on SportsCenter this week,” said Williams after the game.
In the final series, the Packers dug even deeper into the playbook. Most teams call their 6-DB defense the “dime”, but, again, Dom has his own unique nomenclature, referring to it instead as the “Who the hell is that dude?!?” package. Previously reserved for pick-up games at company picnics, the scheme starts with an audible – something like, “Hey, what’s-your-name… yeah, you there… no, to the left of the Gatorade cooler… Josh Bush? Jarrett Bell? Whatever. Think you can cover that guy?”
Evidently, the answer was no in the final play. You certainly can’t put all (or really even much) of the blame on Bell – most of the rest of the backfield was responsible for the other 485 yards given up through the air Sunday. But the reality, if you watch that play again, is if Bell turns around he intercepts that ball. As Roethlisberger said in the post game, “We always say, if the guys’ got his back to me there’s two shoulders I can throw at.” [PS – that last quote is real. As painful as it is to watch, there’s a good breakdown of that final Steelers drive on NFL.com]
The rest of the defense played pretty well. We got pretty consistent pressure; including 5 sacks (really 6 + a forced fumble – more on that later). I probably would have been more aggressive with the blitzes in the final drive – particularly on that 4th and 7 deep in Steelers territory. But that would be largely second-guessing. If the Bush interception hadn’t been nullified by penalty, then I probably would have thought rushing 3 and dropping 8 was the right call. But if you drop 8, you need to cover people, which they didn’t.
2) 9 rushing plays. This was really surprising to me, particularly since we’d done so much to establish a balanced attack the last few weeks. McCarthy didn’t dial up any running plays in the first two series, both of which went 3 and out The Steelers have shown themselves to be vulnerable to the run. The touchdown scamper by Grant confirmed that vulnerability. And an effective running game is a great way to stifle the blitzes they were throwing at us from the first play.
I can understand the thinking that the Steelers defensive secondary is pretty weak, particularly with Polumalu out. But 48 passes to 9 runs? That’s really lopsided. Particularly in a road game against a hot quarterback who you want to keep off the field. In fact, that play calling was almost a textbook example of how not to start a game on the road:
- First offensive series: Go 3 and out on 3 incomplete passes
- First defensive series: Give up a 60-yard touchdown
- Ensuing kick-off: Rack up a 10-yard holding penalty
- Second offensive series: Go 3 and out again, aided by a 5-yard false start penalty
3) Winning close games. I just wrote a thoughtful and well-researched (if I may say so myself) article on this exact subject. Games like this are heartbreakers to lose. But every game from here on out is going to be like this – hard fought and down to the wire. Winning or losing will boil down to one or two guys making plays. Not to call guys out, but here are all the individual players/plays that could have given us a victory Sunday:
- Josh Bell on the final touchdown – already documented. Even if he’d blatantly interfered that would have been better, forcing them to take one more play from the 1-yard line.
- Cullen Jenkins with 10 seconds left on the final drive – had Roethlisberger for a sack that would have killed the clock since the Steelers were out of time outs, but he couldn’t wrap him up.
- Brandon Chillar with 51 seconds left – if he avoids the illegal contact 8 yards from the line of scrimmage, Bush gets an interception that ends the game.
- Charles Woodson with 1:00 minute left – had his hands on a would-be interception.
- Nick Barnett with 1:08 left – if he breaks up the pass on 4th and 7, the game is over.
- Tramon Williams with 1:14 left – also had his hands on a potential interception on an out to Santonio Holmes.
- Mason Crosby on the missed field goal – McCarthy said publicly he has "zero interest" in bringing in another kicker. I hope he’s singing a different tune privately, considering Crosby has missed a field goal from inside 45 yards in four straight games. Arguably, no one on the team is more responsible for winning close games than the kicker. (By the way, coach, the Saints cut John Carney.)
- Donald Lee – if he holds on to the pass (admittedly tougher than it looked since it glanced off the defenders head), he likely takes that in for a touchdown.
Of course, there were also many players who did make big plays. Rodgers, of course, as always was money. Greg Jennings's long touchdown run was beautiful. Jermichael Finley continues to step up and had a fantastic touchdown catch. And I have to call out, yet again, Clay Matthews. He’s nominated for Rookie of the Week again. The outstanding sack/forced fumble/recovery that he had was as impressive an individual effort as I can remember seeing. The fact that play was reversed in replay is a travesty. If it had stood, that would have not only set up a score, potentially changing the outcome, but it would have been one of the main highlights of the game – likely catapulting him to the front-runner for defensive rookie of the year. I watched that replay again and again, and they absolutely robbed him of that play. I can’t understand what the ref was looking at to see “indisputable evidence” to overturn it. Matthews also deserves credit for disrupting the onsides kick towards the end, forcing the Steelers to touch the ball before it went 10 yards. He’s always near the ball.
The biggest bummer of the Packers loss? I don’t get to grow my hair long any more. I thought about amending my earlier pledge – something like “as long as the Packers are still in the playoff hunt and haven’t lost a game by more than 3 points.” But that feels forced, doesn’t it. So I guess I’ll have to get it cut at some point…
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