It Just Doesn’t Matter

That’s what I keep telling myself.  I’ve been in an absolute funk since Sunday.  Terse, short-fused, monotone, punching couch cushions and kicking misplaced stuffed animals as if they were somehow responsible for the Packers’ uninspired 37-20 loss to the Giants.  In the context of the Philbin family’s tragedy last week, it should be easy to put this loss into perspective.  It just doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of life.  Yet, it is gnawing at me and will for months, maybe years, to come.

Every season that doesn’t end up with a Lombardi trophy, I go through a remorseful period.  Mad at myself for spending so much time and mental energy on the Packers, only to have them lose in the end.  But this year’s recovery will take a particularly long time.  The Packers became the first 15-win team ever to be ousted in the first round of the playoffs.  The Lambeau mystique, regained for an 8-0 regular season record, remains entirely gone in the playoffs – where the Packers have gone a disconcerting 2-4 at home in the last decade.

Oddly, while the Packers were heavy favorites, this loss wasn’t that surprising.  The Packers should have been prepared for the possibility of an upset.  There were plenty of warning signs – the NFL-worst defense foremost among them.  Other signs felt more like superstitions – the 2008 NFC Championship loss to these same Giants, the frightening example of the Saints giving up 5 turn-overs in their game, the statistically improbable fact that all the other home teams had won so far that weekend.  Surely, McCarthy had been preaching ball security all week.

Yet, ball security was ultimately what doomed the Packers with four costly turnovers.  Rodgers, who had just six turnovers all season, had two on Sunday.  The fumbles by Ryan Grant and John Kuhn were just as uncharacteristic.  And they were lucky not to lose a fifth with what appeared to everyone to be a fumble by Greg Jennings.  No team ever wins games when they end up 4:1 in turnover margin.  Add to that eight dropped passes, shaky offensive line play (Clifton was basically pulled from the game after allowing the forced fumble, a knockdown and three hurries, and Newhouse wasn’t any better in allowing 1.5 sacks), and a complete paucity of big plays (the longest completion was just 21 yards), and it’s easy to point to an offensive breakdown in searching for explanations for this loss.

But the defense was just as responsible.  The Packers manufactured zero pass rush.  They did a decent job containing the run, except when it mattered the most – Jacobs’ scramble to set up the hail mary before halftime, and in the final time-out-burning drive by the Giants.  The Packers’ secondary was as inexplicably atrocious as its been all season.  The Giants were able to pick up third-and-long plays up the middle at will.  Peprah was particularly abysmal, repeatedly out-of-position and inadvertently busting Hakim Nicks for his long TD with a weak shoulder tackle.

Special teams has to be called out as well.  What in God’s green one were they thinking with that onsides kick in the first half?!?  Although that particular play wasn’t ultimately costly, since they managed to block the field goal attempt, it was indicative of a team playing outside its game plan.  It was totally out of character.  It felt desperate.  And I think it was a turning point – causing the Giants to realize how nervous the Packers were that they would lose this game.

The reality is the warning signs of this kind of playoff meltdown have been apparent all season.  The Packers were fortunate to be 15-1.  I think we all knew deep down that this team had significant vulnerabilities on the defensive side.   And that, if Rodgers and the offense ever failed to put up their usual 30+ points, we could be in trouble.  This team felt like the team from the 2009 season who ended up losing the Wild Card game against Arizona in overtime giving up about 47 miles of passing yardage along the way.

It made me wonder what would have happened if this season had happened last year.  What if the Packers had gone 15-1 only to flop in the opening game of the playoffs at home last season.  Rodgers and McCarthy and Thompson would have faced withering criticism.  Instead, with the Super Bowl under their belts, we’ll give them a break for this year’s disappointment, and look ahead to next season.

But next season will be different.  Driver sounds like he could be gone.  Clifton may be done as well, possibly Woodson?  Finley is in a contract year.  We’ll almost certainly lose key coaches, with rumors of Capers and Philbin both getting head coaching gigs, and Greene and other assistants possibly departing for bigger positions as well.  Every year brings changes.  But this season felt like a unique opportunity – a team that returned mostly intact (with the notably exception of Jenkins) and was healthy at the right time.  A team that was playing at home.  A team that was poised to do something extraordinary: repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Sadly, with one terrible game, that golden opportunity is lost.  It doesn’t matter any more.  The 15-win season doesn’t matter.  The record-breaking year of the likely MVP doesn’t matter.  The damn “discount double check” doesn’t matter (although it is pretty funny).  None of it matters in the face of this loss.  There will be no legacy, no dynasty.  The season is over.  And the Packers and their fans need to pick up the pieces and move on.

Hola, Los Gigantes. We meet again.

January 20, 2008: a play that will live in infamy.

Those of you who are long-time TriggPack fans may recall my past posts about Los Gigantes.  But the rivalry goes back much further than the '07 Jersey Pipefitters convention I witnessed in Cancun during which Corey Webster stuck a dagger in the heart of every Packer fan, and stuck a fork in Brett Favre's career as a Packer, with his overtime interception.  No, this rivalry dates back to the earliest days of the NFL and an Italian-American coach named Lombardi who wasn't white bread enough to be New York's head man.

Lombardi's promotion to Green Bay may as well have come with a mission statement to stick it to his former team, and stick it he did.  The Packers beat the Giants in the NFL Championship game two consecutive years in '61 and '62.   The Packers beat the Giants in two previous NFL Championships as well, in '39 and '44.  Really, the Giants have historically been one of the Packers' biggest non-divisional rivals, up there with the 49ers and Cowboys.  But until that fateful night 4 years ago (and a loss to the Giants in the '38 NFL Championship) it was a rivalry mostly dominated by the Packers.

That 2007 game, however, has Giants fans optimistic and Packers fans concerned.  Coincidentally, I find myself in New York City this week, surrounded by Giants fans.  All they can talk about is how reminiscent this game is of the 2007 season with the Packers playing at home as the higher seed and the Giants coming off a mediocre season but "peaking at the right time."  Although the coaches are the same, most of the players are different -- both teams only have about 15-16 players still on the roster since 2007.  But it is a tantalizing storyline, complete with all the predictable stereotypes of New Yorkers with back hair and Brooklyn accents and Wisconsinites with their excessive cheese and brat consumption (today's New York Times features an article titled "Bratwurst, N.Y.C." about the venerable Packer bar in Greenwich Village called Kettle of Fish) -- a stereotype blunted by the fact Packers fans embrace it... that, and because it's pretty much true.

Although the odds-makers still favor the Packers, this will be a tough match-up.  Here are the keys to a Packer victory:

1. Contain JPP, JT, and OU -- the Giants' front four defensive linemen are probably the best in the business.  Jason Pierre Paul will be a handful for Chad Clifton who is still shaking the rust off a season he mostly spent on the bench.  Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and a healthy rotation will keep this line fresh and put pressure on Rodgers all day.  Getting Clifton and Bulaga back into the starting line-up is reassuring, but wish both had been playing more regularly of late.  Getting Grant and Starks going on the ground would help enormously.
2. Stop the Giants running game -- even though Eli Manning carved up our secondary last game, I believe the Giants will try to pound us with the rush with a healthy Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, particularly if the forecast of snow proves true.  Ryan Pickett will need to have a good game stuffing these guys and forcing the Giants into long down-and-distance.
3. Win the turn-over battle -- as with just about any game, he who wins the turn-over battle usually wins the war.  An interception return by Clay Matthews last game against the Giants proved to be the difference.  If we don't protect the ball and don't get a take-away or two, it will be a problem -- particularly since our defense is otherwise porous.

Of course, this week's game is all the more daunting under the circumstances this week, with the tragic death of Joe Philbin's son.  Tragedies like this can sometimes turn into inspiration, but it has to have been a major event for the players and coaches to deal with, and certainly affected their preparation at some level.  I have no doubt that they could pay Michael Philbin no greater tribute than to dedicate this victory to him.  Hopefully, they can do it.

Flynn Is In

Matt Flynn's record-setting performance Sunday was a perfect showcase for the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent.  Perfect for him at least.  I was kind of holding out hope that he might slide under the radar of other NFL teams and stay on our roster next year in case Rodgers got hurt.  But a 480-yard, 6 touchdown performance against an ostensibly playoff-caliber defense is hard not to notice.

Matt Flynn's wardrobe might be as swanky as Errol's soon.

I was going to title this post "In like Flynn" until I researched the origins of that saying.  Turns out it refers to the famous actor Errol Flynn -- famous mostly for womanizing, binge drinking, and accusations of "alleged" relationships with 15-year-old girls.  That was before he flat-lined of a heart attack at age 50.  Kinda makes you re-consider when it might or might not be appropriate to use that phrase.

For those of you skim-reading this digression, consider avoiding the phrase "In like Flynn" in reference to your dapper appearance at your next PTA meeting.  You're likely to get more than eye rolls from the other parents.  More like a restraining order.  Unless, of course, you're wearing an ascot -- in which case you can probably pull it off.  I elected to just avoid the phrase entirely and go with "Flynn is in" instead.

And he is indeed in.  The NFL is a quarterback-driven league.  There are 32 teams, but, unfortunately, only about 15 good quarterbacks.  You either have one, or you don't.  The teams with good QBs have a good chance of making the playoffs every year.  The ones that don't are perennial also-rans.  Every NFC playoff team has a great quarterback.  Every AFC playoff team does too, except arguably the Texans (now on their third-stringer with Yates) and the Broncos (though at 8-8 they can barely be considered a playoff team).  Like any market, when demand outstrips supply, prices get bid up.  And for Flynn (Matt, not Errol), this means two words: pay day.

I'm glad for Matt.  Seems like a nice guy, and he clearly deserves to be a starter someplace.  Now he should have that chance.  But the unfortunate thing for the Packers is they probably won't get much for him beyond a compensatory draft pick.  He will be an unrestricted free agent, so before they could trade him they would need to put their franchise tag on him -- a potentially risky financial move since it would guarantee Flynn a huge salary if they couldn't trade him.  Plus, the Packers will likely want to use their franchise tag on Jermichael Finley, who, barring a major injury to Rodgers, is simply more valuable to the team than a back-up quarterback.

So the Packers gave Flynn a golden opportunity, and he made the most of it.  Like many Packers players who've gone on to starting roles on other teams, he was the beneficiary of Thompson's and McCarthy's outstanding system of player development.  But, at least for this season, I'm glad he's a Packer.  Just in case.

The Part of the Season We've All Been Waiting For

The Christmas day victory over the Bears secured the third of McCarthy's big four goals for the season, which were (repeated multiple times and typically in this order): 1) win the division, 2) get a first-round bye, 3) secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and 4) win the Super Bowl.  An unstated "nice-to-have" 5th goal may have been to go undefeated, but we'll never know now.  I would have loved to see the Packers make a run at undefeated, but the loss to the Chiefs probably took some pressure off.

However, all these goals will mean nothing unless the 4th is ultimately met.  The Packers didn't achieve any of those first 3 goals last year, but no one gave a crap in the end.  Getting the championship was all that mattered.  And that is all that will matter this year.  From early in the season, it was fairly apparent that the Packers would be in this position.  And after a meaningless game next week against Detroit (one in which I now hope the Packers will rest most of their starters -- particularly if Suh is playing), the Packers are now about to embark on the second part of the season.  It's the mile 0 mark, and anything less than a journey that ends in Indianapolis holding up another Lombardi trophy will be a disappointment.

Watching Drew Brees and the Saints dismantle the Falcons 45-16 while shattering Dan Marino's single-season passing record gives me pause.  As does the 49ers' dominant defense and grind-it-out running game, a style well equipped for cold-weather success at Lambeau Field in January.  Although the path is, statistically speaking, easier this year than it was as a #6 seed last year, the Packers need to enter the post-season with a little better execution all around.

In particular, there are three areas that really need to get shored up:

• First, the defense needs to finally get back into championship form.  Despite beating the Bears in the end by a two touchdown margin, the defense allowed 21 points against a severely depleted Bears offense.  It's cause for concern when Josh McCown, a guy who was a high school football coach till last week and who is seeing his first NFL action of the season, puts up 242 yards passing, and a posse of third-string running backs rack up nearly 200 yards rushing.  This game should have been a shut-out.  If an offense that crappy can put up 21 points, then the 49ers certainly can, and the Saints might break 100.  The defense needs to stiffen.  Counting on turn-overs and 5 TDs from Rodgers won't cut it in the playoffs.
• Second, the offensive line needs to get healthy.  Although the Packers' patch-work line did not give up a single sack against the Bears, they will face some brutal defensive fronts in the post-season -- the 49ers, Giants and Lions all pose serious threats with their front 4.  Chad Clifton will reportedly give it a try this Sunday against the Lions.  And Bryan Bulaga should be back in the line-up either this week or by the playoffs.  The first-round bye will help everyone get healthy again.  Marshall Newhouse and T.J. Lang have both played well this season, but would really like to see the line back to full-strength and everyone back to their regularly scheduled positions for this playoff run.
• Third, the Packers need to regain their intensity.  There is no question the Packers came into last year's playoffs with a win-or-die mind set.  They had nothing to lose.  They played loose but fierce.  And they rode it all the way.  As incredible as an undefeated season would have been in immortalizing this team among the greatest of all time, there is no question that the loss to Kansas City both took some pressure off them, but also reminded them that no team is invincible.  They need to get the chip back on their shoulder and go out and play ball like their lives depended on it.

It's the concern of every team who clinches early that they will get soft.  A month of ultimately inconsequential games can do that, and it will be great for both fans and players to see meaningful action again.  We'll soon know if the Packers can get their blemishes corrected and deliver on goal number four.

Packers + All Cylinders = Wood Chipper

The Raiders Team Bus

The Packers demonstrated just how dangerous they can be when all three phases are firing on all cylinders at the same time.  The Raiders didn't stand a chance Sunday.  The 46-16 drubbing could have been much worse.  But for a rare Rodgers end zone interception and a few drives that ended in field goals instead of touch downs, the Pack easily could have knocked on the door of 60 points.  It was like watching the Badgers play Ball State.  It was an absolute beat down.  In short, it was a Wisconsin wood chipper.

The defense has been much maligned this year, including by me.  If anything will prevent the Packers from realizing their ultimate goal, it seems like it will be the defense.  They are ranked 31st in the league by yards allowed, after all.  But Sunday was an excellent case study in just what the defensive philosophy of the Packers really is.  Sure they allowed over 350 yards of offense, but they got 5 take-aways and a defensive touchdown.

The emphasis of the Packers defense is taking the ball away.  If they can give Rodgers and the offense just one or two additional possessions in the game, it translates into wide margins of victory.  And on that front, the Packers have one of the best defenses in the league.  They are far-and-away #1 in the NFL in interceptions, logging 27 so far this year, well ahead of #2 in that category (Detroit with 18).  And with the offense's excellent ball security, the result is a +20 turn-over margin, second only to the 49ers.

I still worry that if there comes a time this season when the defense needs to get that final stand that they may not be able to get it done, as we witnessed in the game last week against the Giants.  But if they can put up performances like they did Sunday, it won't matter.  The opponents will be a pile of bark chips while the Packers starters are in sweat pants by the start of the 4th quarter.

Suh-icide

Our turkey doing a Lambeau Leap onto the bar.

It was a pretty typical Thanksgiving at the Trigg household -- a twenty-pound turkey, dinner for 14, and a Packer victory over the Lions.  Like in past Thanksgivings, cooking such an ambitious meal while simultaneously watching the Packer game posed an added degree of difficulty.  In fact, when Rodgers hit James Jones for a 65-yard touchdown the bird accidentally got impaled on my hand as I pumped my fists in excitement.

I don't normally like leading off my post-game analysis with the opposing team, but the Packers have just become so... predictable.  Seems like every week goes down the same way:

• Rodgers throws for 300+ yards, multiple touchdowns, no interceptions and a 110+ QB rating
• Somewhere between 12 and 27 Packers receivers catch passes
• The defense gives up 17 miles of yardage but manages to minimize the scores and gets multiple take-aways
• Packer players are chillin' and cracking jokes on the sideline by midway through the fourth quarter

Where's the excitement?  Where's the adversity?  Where's the drama?  Fortunately, we had Ndamukong Suh stomping on Evan Dietrich-Smith's arm to keep things interesting.  I actually can sympathize with Suh.  Not only did he get beat on the play by a second-string left guard, but it was by a guy with a hyphenated name.  On national TV.  How humiliating.

Suh's dirty play has drawn all the media attention, and deservedly so.  It was a pivotal play in the most critical moment of the biggest game at a key point in the season by their best player.  The full cost of that play probably won't occur to Suh till later -- not only costing his team this game, but potentially hurting them for multiple games (if he's suspended, as most expect he will be).  Furthermore, in addition to the monetary fine he'll need to pay, he likely lost millions in endorsement dollars now that he has provided visible evidence of the "dirty player" reputation he already had.  The only thing more preposterous than the stomp itself was his feeble attempt to explain the incident in his post-game interview.

But Suh's action was really just indicative of a Lions team that was out-classed on Thursday.  The danger for a high-energy, pumped-up team playing on the big stage against the Super Bowl champs is that they let their emotions get the better of them.  And that's exactly what happened to the Lions -- committing 11 penalties for 82 yards, many, like Suh's, at critical junctures.  Combine that with 3 interceptions by Matthew Stafford and you can stick fork in this Thanksgiving showdown.

It really starts with Jim Schwartz.  Anyone who starts a backyard brawl over a post-game handshake is a lame ass.  The Lions are a good team.  The city of Detroit needs them to be a good team.  Hell, they deserve a good team.  But they need to evolve beyond chip-on-the-shoulder bravado to be real challengers.  And after going 2-4 their last six games, they seem to be fading.  We'll see them again in week 17, but by then it may not matter.

Just How Hard Is a Perfect Season?

Another week, another win.  Even though they kept it competitive, the Bucs never really felt that threatening today at Lambeau.  Nobody picked them to win, and, in the end, you could sense they didn't expect to themselves.  But underdogs do win sometimes.  In the Packers perfect season, it's easy to lose sight of that fact.

Today marked an interesting milestone: the 16th win in a row for the Packers dating back to last year -- or the equivalent of a full regular season.  It begs the question, just how hard is that to do?  What are the odds of winning 16 in a row?  What are the odds of going undefeated this season?  What would a mathematician put our odds at?  Why am I asking so many questions?

The reality, statistically speaking, is that the Packers will eventually lose a game this season.  I hope it doesn't happen.  I don't expect it to happen.  But from a strict, numerical, probabilistic, algorithmic standpoint, it is likely to happen.  Before proceeding any further in this article, I should warn the reader that I am about to attempt math.  You'd think with a last name like Trigg (o-nometry), this would be a forte of mine.  Not so much.  So be warned, someone could get hurt.

A US quarter: AKA the "Manitowoc Abacus"

Let's start with a baseline.  There are two teams in every NFL game.  If the contest is perfectly evenly matched, each team has a 50% chance of winning -- same as the flip of a coin, 50/50.  Hopefully, I'm not going too fast for anyone.  If you assume a 50% chance of winning in every game, then going undefeated over a 19-game season (16 regular season games + 3 playoff games) is 0.5 to the 19th power.  (That's that little superscript "mini-me" number that always screwed you up in algebra and I can't figure out how to do in HTML).

Now 0.5 to the 19th is a small number.  I know that because when you get the little "E" thing in Excel instead of actual numbers, it means it's a really small number.  How small?  (Hold on, Manitowoc, I'm about to blow your mind!)  It's a 0.0001907348% chance, or 1 in 524,288, that an average NFL team goes undefeated.  If, like most red-blooded Americans, you don't believe in math, try flipping a quarter 19 times and getting heads every time (then try getting tails 19 times, and call me in about 35 years once you've finished).

Now, you say, "yeah, but the Packers have better than a 50% chance of winning every week."  Of course.  That's what good teams do.  They improve their chances of winning slightly above the 50/50 baseline odds.  How much more likely are the Packers to win, on average?  Maybe 60%?  70%?  80%!?!  It's hard to imagine anyone other than the most aggressively optimistic or inebriated Packer fan asserting an 80% chance of the Packers winning every week, against every opponent, for an entire season.

But here's where that "19th power" thing really messes with your brain: even at 80% odds of winning each week, the odds of winning an entire season is only 1.441151881% or 1 in 69.  Don't believe me?  Check out my handy cheat sheet.  Excel doesn't lie, although it does drive you freakin' crazy when you're trying to get the IRR function to work at 2AM.  No wonder Vegas sports books are so good at taking everyone's money.  The actual likelihood of unlikely things is hard for our simple brains to get their cortexes around.

Occasionally Rodgers throws an interception.  Once in a while, opposing running backs break 7 tackles on the way to a 54-yard touchdown run.  Sometimes desperation onsides kicks are recovered.  In short, in the wise words of a baseball hat I once saw at a shop up in Door County with a plastic turd on the brim, "Shit Happens."  Once again this week, all you need to do is look around at the fate of some other top teams -- the Giants losing at home to the 3-6 Eagles, or Jay Cutler breaking his thumb and likely out for the season -- to remind yourself how fortunate the Packers are to be sitting at 10-0.

An undefeated season certainly won't be easy.  And if it happens, it would likely be a once-in-our-lifetimes event.  But although it's not probable, anything is possible.