Opinionated, but not infrequently under-informed, observations of the Green Bay Packers. If something in this blog sounds funny, it's probably satirical.
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So the blogosphere speculation is rapidly heating up about the Packers potentially trading for Buffalo running back Marshawn Lynch. It's a very interesting possibility for several reasons.
First, the Bills have already expressed a desire to trade him. He was a hold-out at camp this year, disgruntled over the fact the Bills selected C.J. Spiller in the first round and the back-up role went to Fred Jackson. His off-the-field problems have been a headache and he clearly doesn't click with the coaching staff. There was speculation they may move him before the season started, and Green Bay was mentioned as a possibility even before Grant's injury. There's no reason for the Bills to have so much depth at RB when they have so many holes to fill elsewhere.
Second, Lynch knows Aaron Rodgers from their Cal days. So if any person and organization can turn the guy's career around, it's Rodgers and Green Bay. A rapid fail as Lynch experienced in Buffalo is both humbling, but also motivating. You often see guys come back from an experience like that with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove on the field.
Third, he's clearly a talented guy. He was a serious stud in college -- many considered him a Heisman candidate. In his first season or two in Buffalo, it seemed he would have the same success in the pros. His off-field problems and overall attitude have been the bigger deterrents to his success, not a lack of talent. In the right situation, he could quickly re-emerge as a dominant player.
I have no idea what the Bills would want in return. Trading him for a future draft pick would be ideal, but the Bills likely want someone who can help them now. The intriguing wrinkle to all this is that the Packers play the Bills this Sunday. It would be quite a kick if he came onto the field in green and gold! If nothing else, it's a convenient chance for the two clubs to talk trade in person. I personally would love to see this move.
Injuries are part of the game, but, as we were reminded last year when Al Harris went down, it's always a bummer to suffer them at positions where we lack depth. Unfortunately, that happened twice on Sunday with Ryan Grant and Justin Herrell going down -- key losses at the running back and defensive line positions where we are already thin, not only in terms of talent but in actual headcount on the roster.
First, running back. It was not a good feeling to see Grant leave the game after a nasty ankle twist and return to the field with a boot on it. McCarthy confirmed yesterday that the injury was “significant” and may have included ligament damage. They will be conducting "further tests" to determine the extent of the damage. I hate to sound pessimistic, but that all sounds like code for a potentially season-ending injury. "Further tests" typically means an MRI to determine if the ligament damage is bad enough to require surgery. And, in fact, Jay Glazer from Fox Sports is tweeting this morning that Grant is done for the season. Brandon Jackson will have to step up, but I also think the Packers need to get another legitimate running back on the roster. John Kuhn will now shift to back-up at halfback, but we need more depth here if nothing else.
Second, defensive line. Justin Herrell is gone for the season with a torn ACL, an injury he suffered during a field goal attempt of all things. It's time to accept that the guy has been a complete bust since the Packers selected him with their top pick in the 2007 draft. One could easily have speculated Herrell would suffer from the injury bug as a pro. He missed significant portions of his college career due to various injuries, including a torn biceps, broken ankle, leg surgery and back problems. As a Packer, he has only played 13 games in four seasons, he missed all of last year, and now he's done for this year as well -- probably done for his career. With Jolly out for the season on suspension and Mike Neal as a rookie struggling with injuries himself, the lack of depth on the defensive line is concerning. The only silver lining of this injury could be Thompson finally becoming willing to give up on the guy and pick up a free agent. Not sure who this would be. Albert Haynesworth is disgruntled, but also out of shape and doesn't want to play in a 3-4. Leonard Little is also a free-agent, but he's a little long in the tooth.
Bottom line, I hope Thompson and the personnel team in Green Bay is furiously working the phones and combing the practice squads of other teams because we need players.
That game was just as squirrelly as I expected, but a win is a win and I'll take it. In fact, that's the first win the Packers have managed to get in the City of Brotherly Love since 1962. Something about Philadelphia seems trapped in a time warp and those throw-back uniforms the Eagles were sporting didn't help. I half expected Mark Wahlberg from Invincible to step onto the field in his kelly greens. Some throw-back uniforms are cool. Those are not. Neither is that hairdo. I know you're trying to be all Vince Papale and stay authentic to the period, but you look like... Tom Brady.
As a former Green Bay coach, Andy Reid knows the Packers extremely well and his game planning was superb. Start with pressure on Rodgers -- which included multiple hurries, collapsed pockets, and 3 sacks in the first 15 minutes. Follow it up by taking Finley out of his comfort zone -- which they again did early on with Stewart Bradley keying on him. And then shut down the other bread-and-butter plays the Packers love -- cheating on quick slants, sniffing out the screens, swarming draws, etc. It was pretty effective, holding the Packers to 13 points in the first half and 27 on the game.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, Kevin Kolb looked like Marky Mark might have been pretending to be him in the first half. Kolb was 5 of 10 for 24 yards before Clay Matthews hoed the ground with his head, sending him to the bench with a concussion and 6 square feet of Lincoln Financial Field in his face mask. Marky probably could have done better. Ironically, the worst thing the Packers could have done was knock the Eagles starting quarterback out of the game. For the rest of the game, Michael Vick gashed our defense like a... well, like rottweiler. Presumably the Packers D didn't game plan against Vick much, but they should have. The guy put up 175 yards in the air and another 103 on the ground during 3 scoring drives in the second half. Thank God Vick didn't start!
The good news of the game is that Rodgers can have a bad game on the road and we still win. Rodgers looked out-of-sync all day. He was off-target on his first three passes of the game, all incompletions. He threw two interceptions, both on badly thrown balls. And he was clearly rattled by the push up the middle and stunts that the Eagles threw at him, resulting in 3 sacks. But very few coaches will know how to get inside his head better than Reid. So, hopefully, Aaron will be back to his usual swagger in week 2.
The defense, in spite of letting the Eagles back into the game, looked pretty good. Clay Matthews showed his Pro-bowl selection was no fluke. He was dominant, leading the team with 7 tackles, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. He is un-believably athletic for his size and will be a disruptive force opposing offenses will have to deal with all season. Charles Woodson also had a stellar day, flying all over the field as usual and forcing a fumble. It was also great to see our un-drafted rookies mixing it up. Frank Zombo got a key sack and Sam Shields held his own for the most part.
Finally, special teams had a solid day too. Mason Crosby was money, hitting two long kicks including a 56-yarder right before the half. Punt and kick coverage was reliable. And Jordy Nelson proved to be a huge momentum changer with three consecutive long kick-off returns after Philadelphia scores.
It wasn't pretty, but it was a win. And it sets us up for a good start to the season. So you can take your Greg Kinear Philly fans. We'll take our W.
I really don't harbor any ill will against Favre. I harbor ill will against the Vikings. Favre just happens to be their quarterback. If he was still a Jet, I wouldn't care. But as the QB of our arch nemesis, I am compelled to revel in his failures and the failures of his team.
This hit by the Saints' Roman Harper on Thursday night was a thing of absolute beauty. Favre left his feet as if he was hit by a car. I was a little surprised his shoes didn't come off in the process. The result of this wobbling pass was an interception. Just like in the NFC Championship game, the formula for beating any Favre-led team remains putting hits on him and forcing him into stupid mistakes.
So the Vikings season begins this year as it ended last year -- on the turf of the Super Dome watching an interception replay on the jumbotron. The Vikings offense will be challenged to be as potent as it was last year. Favre missed training camp again, but that's no surprise. His offensive line has had some shuffling due to injuries. Guards Steve Hutchinson and Anthony Herrera both had shoulder injuries last season. Center John Sullivan has struggled with a calf injury in the pre-season. And left tackle Bryant McKinnie had to leave the game Thursday due to a dislocated finger. Like the Packers last season, the Vikings offensive line hasn't had good playing time together and it could affect their consistency.
More widely publicized have been their issues at receiver. Last year's star Sidney Rice is out at least half the season due to hip surgery which he bizarrely neglected to do at the end of last season. Guess he just didn't make it that far down his to-do list. Percy Harvin, who had an impressive rookie season last year, has suffered from intense migraines and collapsed at practice a few weeks ago requiring a trip to the hospital in an ambulance. Bernard Berrian has never been a go-to guy, and he showed it again Thursday catching only one pass for three yards in addition to a key drop. Visanthe Shiancoe had a nice game and clearly is the guy Favre trusts most. But he had back-to-back bone-headed penalties Thursday, and the Saints demonstrated in the second half that Shiancoe can be easily shut down when there are so few other receiving weapons on the field. Adrian Peterson looked great, but the absence of a dangerous passing threat is the best way to keep Peterson contained. Plus, Favre is too impatient to stick with the run.
As good as the Vikings defense looked, if their offense can't put up more than 9 points, they are going to have a hard time winning with any consistency. And more hits like this could mean this season is finally Favre's last. Like a lot of Packers fans, though, I have too much respect for Favre to trash talk him directly. So I'll leave the trash talking (and child exploitation) to the Saints fans:
I feel a little odd declaring that the opening game of the season is a "must win." But at the end of the season, every win is worth the same amount. If the Packers don't come out and set the tone with a convincing win against the Eagles on Sunday, I will be worried about their season. Aside from the fact that my kids are rabid Green Bay Packers fans who will be heartbroken if we lose our opening game of the season, there are three reasons I see this as a must win game.
First, the Vikings lost. We all know that any viable playoff run must first start with winning the NFC North. With the Vikings losing in the Bayou tonight, Green Bay can take an immediate lead in the division if they win Sunday. Getting out of the gate early will be critical in setting the pace and establishing themselves as the team to beat.
Second, the Eagles could be testy. I'm not sure why, but the Eagles feel like a sleeper team to me. Especially on opening day at home. New QB Kevin Kolb seems like a budding star, and DeSean Jackson, Jason Avant, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek are legit receiving options that could test the Packers thin secondary. This is the kind of game on the road that you need to be able to win to be a contender.
Third, if they win this game the Packers have a legitimate shot at being 6-0 by the time they face the Vikings. Beating Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Washington and Miami all feel very do-able. If the Packers are able to get off to that kind of start, they will turn their pre-season hype into regular season intimidation. They will switch from the team that everyone wants to knock off their pedestal, to the team everyone is afraid to confront. And they will have the confidence and swagger necessary to take down the Vikings in week 7 and, hopefully, put themselves in a 2-3 game lead in the NFC North.
If Green Bay loses Sunday, all these things run the risk of unraveling the other way. They will be fighting game-by-game with the Vikings for first place. Other teams will have tape on how to beat them. And the media will start rampantly speculating about the whether they were over-hyped. We don't want that to happen. So... it's a must win. Get it done!
The NFL regular season starts Thursday, and expectations around Packer nation, and the actual nation for that matter, are at a fever pitch. Green Bay hasn't been under this much pressure to win the Super Bowl since Bart Star was under center. The hype has reached such a level that I almost feel sorry for Vikings fans who have to listen to everyone predict Packer dominance in the NFC North despite their status as defending divisional champs. Then I think about north woods face-painters like this dude and remember that I should never feel sorry for Vikings fans. Lions fans, maybe, after generations of suffering under Packer oppression, but never Vikings fans.
At first, I thought the high expectations were just among us. Those who saw the development of the team last year. Witnessed the maturation of Aaron Rodgers into an MVP-level player. Could attest to the strength of the run-stuffing defense. But as the pre-season prognosticators across the myriad media outlets started pontificating their predictions, the persistent premonitions of Packer prowess were perceptible.
Interestingly, probably the most muted expectations were from the sports writers at the Green Bay Press-Gazette. Although 3 of the 4 predicted the Packers will win the NFC North, only one (Mike Vandermause) had them going to the Super Bowl and losing to the Ravens. I think they're sand bagging -- either that or trying to invoke some superstitious reverse jinx or something. The national media has been much more bullish on the Packers' prospects. This ESPN article providing the predictions of 7 of their top football analysts was particularly striking. Among their predictions:
4 of 7 have Rodgers as Offensive Player of the Year, 3 of 7 have him as MVP
6 of 7 predict the Packers will win the NFC North
7 of 7 predict they will go to the NFC Championship game
7 of 7 predict they will win the NFC and go to the Super Bowl
4 of 7 predict they will win the Super Bowl
Of course, one of these guys predicted the Bengals will also go to the Super Bowl, so what the hell do they know. But those are some seriously high expectations, and it doesn't stop there. I heard Adam Schein and Rich Gannon on NFL Network radio both predict the Packers in the Super Bowl. And none other than our own Aaron Rodgers' mug just graced the cover of Sports Illustrated.
Cue Queen (with David Bowie)...
There are two possible outcomes when the hype circling your team reaches this decibel level. Either:
You embrace it and confidently start delivering the goods, turning that pre-season hype into regular season intimidation and domination on your way to Super Bowl glory, or
You don't live up to it, start losing, trigger a wave of nay-sayers whose ripple effect spawns a wave of self-doubt causing your entire season to implode and all the coaching staff to lose their jobs.
My hope is for scenario 1.
Against that backdrop, I wouldn't be a self-respecting blogger if I didn't publicly lay out my predictions for the Packers' 2010 season. So without further delay, here goes:
Sun., Sept. 12 @ Philadelphia Eagles -- Win, but a tight tester game. Very nervous they will overlook the Eagles in their yard. Just the thought of playing there still makes me twitch with PTSD flashbacks to our 2003 playoff loss against them.
Sun., Sept. 19 Buffalo Bills -- Win. Bills may be the worst team in football this year, and should be a cake walk of a home opener. A loss here is too horrifying to contemplate, so I won't.
Mon., Sept. 27 @ Chicago Bears -- Win. First and only Monday night appearance this year (apparently the MNF producers didn't get the "Packers to dominate" memo). Jay Cutler and Mike Martz already struggling to keep their jobs at this early stage in the season.
Sun., Oct. 3 Detroit Lions -- Win. I will be at this game, and can't wait! Lions make me a little nervous as I think they will be dramatically improved this year... to a record of 3-13.
Sun., Oct. 10 @ Washington Redskins -- Loss. I'm not necessarily buying into the excitement about an improved Redskin team. Lots of dysfunction in that locker room, and they still have a mascot that looks like it was pulled from a Mississippi high school in the 1950s. But I expect us to drop at least one game early on and this or the Eagles game feel like the most likely candidates.
Sun., Oct. 17 Miami Dolphins -- Win. Parcells' recent departure (vying with Brett for the most fake retirements) shows he knows what's coming in Miami. Mediocrity. Your wild cat doesn't scare me.
Sun., Oct. 24 Minnesota Vikings -- Win. Like last year, this match-up could determine the division. We get them in our house, and, if we've taken care of business the first 6 weeks, we should have a good record and the inside track for NFC Norris bragging rights.
Sun., Oct. 31 @ New York Jets -- Loss. Another favorite pick of the NFL gurus, probably because of all the f-bombs Rex Ryan drops on Hard Knocks. I actually think we match up pretty well against their vertically-challenged offense, but winning at the New Meadowlands on Halloween will not be easy.
Sun., Nov. 7 Dallas Cowboys -- Win. I'm short-selling the Cowboys, even if Jerry did get the Super Bowl. The defense is porous, the receivers are prima donnas, Romo is a choker, and all will be on display in this Sunday night game at home.
Sun., Nov. 14 -- I predict they will have a bye week. Record: 7-2.
Sun., Nov. 21 @ Minnesota Vikings -- Loss. Always a tough game for us to win in that God-forsaken dome.
Sun., Nov. 28 @ Atlanta Falcons -- Win. Another dome against another popular pick for a break-out team this year. I, frankly, don't see it. Matt Ryan is great, but nothing else about the Falcons generates any excitement.
Sun., Dec. 5 San Francisco 49ers -- Win. Welcome to Lambeau in December, gentlemen. Alex Smith sets league record with 17 interceptions.
Sun., Dec. 12 @ Detroit Lions -- Win. Detroit already posturing for first overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft by this point.
Sun., Dec. 19 @ New England Patriots -- Loss. Another very win-able game for us, but anticipate we can't quite get over the hump against them thanks to a Brady dismantling of our secondary.
Sun., Dec. 26 New York Giants -- Win. Eli is actually another quarterback with the capacity to expose our weak secondary, but I think we get the job done at home as we gear up for the playoffs.
Sun., Jan. 2 Chicago Bears -- Win. Bears are working out Caleb Hanie at QB by this point, desperately seeking some answer for next season.
Overall record: 12-4
Win NFC North and get first-round bye
Lose to Saints in NFC Championship game in a shoot out.
There you go. I desperately hope I'm wrong and they bring home another Lombardi, but I just think the failure to shore up the defensive secondary and pass rush is going to be too much to overcome against the elite quarterbacks. We shall soon find out.
The final cuts were announced yesterday, trimming the Packers down to the required 53-man roster. Frankly, there were some surprises on the chop list, particularly: RB Kregg Lumpkin, O-linemen Evan Dietrich-Smith, Breno Giacomini and Allen Barbre, TE Spencer Havner, and WR Jason Chery. Let me elaborate.
With the cut of Lumpkin, the Packers now have two running backs on the entire roster, including the practice squad. Unless Thompson intends to pick someone up off waivers from another club, this strikes me as a borderline reckless move. Ryan Grant has had some injuries in the pre-season, and Brandon Jackson is no stranger to the treatment room. To have no depth behind these guys scares me. And Lumpkin actually looked serviceable in the pre-season game against the Chiefs. Really would like to see them sign someone here.
Our offensive line woes are well-documented. Bryan Bulaga, Jason Spitz and T.J. Lang are essentially our only three back-ups. Nick McDonald and Marshall Newhouse are listed as well, but Dietrich-Smith and Giacomini seemed to be ahead of both those guys in the pre-season rotation. The Vikings apparently made an immediate move for Giacomini, but it sounds like the Packers were able to retain him for the practice squad. Dietrich-Smith was picked up by the Seahawks. I would have expected the Packers to retain some depth and experience on the offensive line. Right now, nobody is listed on the depth chart behind 33-year old Mark Tauscher. Not sure what their plan is in the event he goes down -- probably moving Bulaga over to the right side of the line I imagine.
Losing Spencer Havner, who is now a Detroit Lion, was also a bummer. I loved Havner's energy, and he was productive -- catching 4 TDs last season. He also was versatile, contributing on special teams as well as some playing time at linebacker. Presumably this was a cut of necessity. The Packers are stacked at tight end and still have 4 remaining on their roster -- Finley and Lee, of course, as well as 5th-round pick Andrew Quarless and Tom Crabtree. The decision to draft a TE in the 5th round this year not withstanding (I probably would have gone defensive back or end), Quarless I can kind of understand -- he looks like Finley at times and could be an upgrade from Lee when it's time for him to move on. I know little about Crabtree other than the fact he was a second-year undrafted free agent originally signed by Kansas City. Not the team I want to be taking cast-offs from. I would have kept Havner for the spirit if nothing else.
Finally, Jason Chery was the only glimmer in an otherwise depressing kick/punt return team this pre-season. One TD return does not a career make, but it seemed slightly surprising to see McCarthy elevate Chery to a role of returning all punts and kicks in the Kansas City game, only to see him cut two days later. Did he need another return to pay dirt to save his job? It looks like they'll be using Brandon Jackson for kick returns and Tramon Williams for punt returns. Why would you put your second and only back-up running back in a position he's likely to get injured? Wish the Packers had someone here like a Desmond Howard -- an impact player. I'm not saying Chery was that guy, but at least he ran with something to prove. These other guys will just be trying to avoid getting hurt. Seems like we're settling on a position that can be one of the biggest X-factors in the game.
I hope Thompson is working the phones right now to try to get us another RB and a returner, possibly another offensive lineman. But I'm not optimistic. We made no notable free agency moves this off-season, and I don't expect any now. Have to just trust they know what they're doing.
