Super Bowl Win a Microcosm of Packers’ Season

In reviewing the press coverage, box score, highlights, post-game interviews and the rest of the deluge of information and analysis about last night’s game, there is one high-level observation I came away with: the Packers won this game their way.  In fact, the game itself was a microcosm of the Green Bay Packers’ 2010 season.  There were three areas in particular which stood out about Sunday's game that are also emblematic of how the Packers have played all season:

Outstanding Play from Rodgers – Sunday’s game epitomized the consistently outstanding results we’ve come to expect from Rodgers.  It was a virtuoso performance, with near-perfect execution save for a few would-be touchdowns that fell through his receivers’ hands.  As they’ve done all season, McCarthy put the ball in Aaron’s hands and relied heavily on the pass, with just enough efficacy in the running game to keep the defense honest.

This game, this season, is pointed to by many as finally getting the Favre monkey off Rodgers’s back.  Rodgers is the first to admit that his career will be inextricably linked to Favre’s.  But with this Super Bowl win, it’s becoming apparent that Rodgers is simply a better quarterback.  With three seasons as the starter under his belt, Rodgers has outperformed Favre in virtually every relevant passing statistic:

• Rodgers is both more prolific and more efficient in his passing, leading Favre in yards per game (263.7 to 237.9), average yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 7.1) and completion percentage (64.6% to 62.0%).
• Rodgers is considerably better at protecting the ball, averaging nearly half the interceptions per game (0.66 to Favre’s 1.11) while nearly doubling Favre in touchdown to interception ratio (2.8 for Rodgers to only 1.5 for Favre).
• Rodgers is also more accurate and better at completing the long ball, generating pass plays of 20+ yards on 10.1% of attempts (to 8.6% for Favre) and 40+ yards on 2.8% of attempts (to 1.6% for Favre).

About the only statistic in which Favre is better than Rodgers is in sacks.  Rodgers has given up an average of 2.45 sacks per game, compared to Favre’s 1.74 sacks per game.  However, it’s hard to measure how many of those sacks were avoided interceptions.   Plus, Rodgers makes up for the lost sack yardage with better ability to gain yardage with his feet.  Rodgers has averaged 18.7 rushing yards per game, more than 3X Favre’s 6.1 rushing yards per game.  It's hard to contemplate our good fortune as fans to have one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time be followed by another of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Opportunistic Defense – Dom Capers is an undisputed defensive mastermind.  In each game, particularly through these playoffs, he’s had a new scheme that has frazzled opposing quarterbacks, consistently taken away the other team’s best offensive weapons, and created turn-overs.  In the Packers playoff run, it was the defense, not the offense, that consistently had to step up – securing the victory in the final drive against Chicago, Philadelphia, Chicago (again) and Pittsburgh.

Sunday’s game again was a microcosm of the bend-but-don’t-break style of play that has become a Packer signature.  They were one of the toughest defenses to score against all year, and forced opposing offenses to react to them.  The Packers also have an incredible number of playmakers on defense, and all were on display Sunday.  The stars all played lights-out – Woodson, Collins, Matthews, and Williams.  But Zombo, Bishop, Bush, Peprah, Raji, Pickett and Hawk all also had outstanding games.  With the return of their injured players next season, this will truly be one of the best and deepest defensive units in the NFL.

Overcoming Injury – Injuries were an early and often reality in the Packers’ 2010 season, and to have two game-ending injuries to two of the emotional, veteran leaders of the team in Woodson and Driver is just incredible.  But what more fitting end to an injury-riddled season than to have the rest of the team step up in their absence.  In the receiving corps, we’ve come to expect that they can still stretch teams out even with one of their star players sidelined.  But to lose Woodson was an even greater challenge to overcome – in many ways the defensive equivalent of losing Rodgers on offense.  He’s calling audibles, directing players, running his own stunts and schemes, and constantly coming up with big plays.

With Sam Shields out for several plays with injury as well, Jarrett Bush and Pat Lee needed to step up, and they did – just as second-, third- and fourth-string players have stepped up at every position this entire season.  Packers starters missed 91 games due to injuries this season.  Seventeen players were on IR.  There is almost no team that could have weathered that storm, and, yet, the Packers did.  It is testament to Ted Thompson and his team’s ability to scout talent, build depth, and identify players with both the skillset and mindset to fit into the Packers’ system.  Truly remarkable.

What I enjoyed hearing most in the post-game celebration – at the very moment when Thompson, McCarthy and Rodgers all would have been well-justified in a feeling of “I told you so” vindication – was all of them already thinking about and talking about repeating.  This victory didn’t have the cathartic feeling of a long-awaited one-time ending.  It had the feeling of a beginning.  The feeling of “holy crap, think how good they could be with their full complement of players.”  The feeling of the start of an era.

The next achievement is to repeat.  This crew, particularly Rodgers, knows that longevity is the only remaining thing left to prove.  And they seem determined to prove it.  They still seem, despite winning it all, to have just that little bit of chip left on their collective shoulders.  That burning, perfectionist desire to prove something more – not just that they are the greatest for one season, but to etch their names among the greatest of all time.  I already can’t wait for next season.

Brett Keisel’s Beard Reveals it’s a Packers Fan

Brett Keisel's beard during its post-game press conference.

Grizzly Adams phoned, and he wants his beard back.  In the aftermath of the Packers 4th Super Bowl championship Sunday, Brett Keisel’s Beard revealed it was actually rooting for the Packers all along.  The Steelers defensive end was outraged when his beard admitted the news during its own post-game press conference.

“I’ve been living a lie,” said Keisel’s Beard.  “My true loyalties have always been to the Packers, and I don’t care what the consequences are.”  The last statement a thinly veiled challenge to Keisel’s threat to the Beard, “don’t make me get out my razor!”

Public support of the Beard has been outpouring since admitting its true loyalties, with popularity on its Facebook fan page skyrocketing.  Other NFL beards also came to the defense.  “It took a lot of courage to do what Keisel’s Beard did today,” said Packers guard Josh Sitton’s Beard.  “I think his Beard felt taken for granted at times this season.”

Keisel was quoted during Super Bowl media day as saying, “The beard — the beard is why we’re here.  It’s unleashed Super Bowl powers on our whole team and hopefully it can win us one more.”  Keisel even allowed reporters to touch the Beard during his Q&A session.

Foamation founder Ralph Bruno says he may develop a Cheesebeard.

If it’s shaved off, Keisel’s Beard may be attending the Packers victory parade in Green Bay.  “There’s always room on the Packers’ championship float for one more beard,” said Packers GM Ted Thompson.  Ralph Bruno, the founder of Foamation and creator of the iconic foam Cheesehead, said he is in negotiation with Keisel’s Beard to develop a Cheesebeard.  Fear the Beard, indeed.

Lombardi Trophy Returns to Titletown

Strapping on the championship belt for real.

What a win.  What a season.  Many of us hoped for a Super Bowl victory when this season started.  Many experts predicted it.  But no one predicted it would happen this way.  After a season like that, I think I’m going to have to officially change my name to Trigg.i.am in honor of the Black Eyed Peas.

In a weird way, you couldn’t write a more fitting ending to an unbelievable season.  With 16 players on IR, the Packers needed to overcome unbelievable odds just to get to the Super Bowl, let alone win it.  But to have two veteran leaders on both sides of the ball leave the game with injuries – Donald Driver on offense and Charles Woodson on defense – the victory was all the more sweeter.  How incredible to win the game for those two guys.

There could also be no greater vindication for Aaron Rodgers, or Mike McCarthy, or Ted Thompson.  With an emphatic win, with a Super Bowl championship, these three have officially put an end to the Wolf-Holmgren-Favre era.  They have equaled the accomplishments of the previous administration, and seem poised to do more damage in the years to come.

There are many critiques that could be leveled about this game.  The receivers dropped several passes, at least 2 of which could have gone for touchdowns.  Nelson, in particular, missed a few key catches, despite leading the team with 140 receiving yards.  But three turn-overs on the defensive side, which were converted to 21 points, proved insurmountable for the Steelers.

Rodgers, as he’s done all season, was golden.  Equaling his predecessor with a Lombardi trophy, he also did something Favre never did: win a Super Bowl MVP.  He is everything Packers fans hoped he would be and more.  And tonight, Rodgers gets to strap on the championship belt for real.  Go Pack Go!!!!

Final Match-Up Analysis for Super Bowl XLV

Tomorrow’s game should be one of the best Super Bowls in many years.  Many NFL experts are predicting an over-time game.  The two teams are remarkably similar.

On the defensive side, these teams exemplify the best of the 3-4 scheme.  Their similarity is no surprise, since it evolved from the same set of people.  Dom Capers was defensive coordinator for the Steelers from 1992-94 and developed the fire-zone defense both teams run so effectively today with Dick LeBeau (then defensive backs coach and today defensive coordinator).  The intermixed DNA of these defenses couldn’t be greater, and the results speak for themselves.  Green Bay and Pittsburgh are two of the best defenses in the league, with the Steelers holding just a slight edge in most categories:

• The Steelers were #1 in the NFL for scoring defense, allowing just 14.5 points per game.  The Packers were #2 at 15 per game.
• In overall defense, Pittsburgh finished the season #2, while Green Bay was #5.
• In run defense, Pittsburgh was #1 allowing just 62.8 yards per game, while Green Bay was #18 during the regular season but has been much more stalwart in the playoffs – allowing just 69.7 yards per game.
• Pittsburgh led the league in sacks with 48.  The Packers were #2 with 47.
• The Packers had 24 interceptions to 21 for the Steelers.

Offensively, the teams are different in perception but more similar statistically than most people realize.  Just as the Steelers have the edge in most defensive categories, the Packers hold a slight edge in most offensive categories:

• In the regular season, the Packers ranked #10 in the NFL in points per game at 24.2, while the Steelers were #12 at 23.4.
• In total yard per game, the Packers were #9 in the NFL at 358.1, while the Steelers were #14 at 345.3 yards per game.
• The Packers passing game came in #5 in the league in the regular season at 257.8 yards per game, compared to the Steelers #14 ranking of 225.1 yards per game.
• As we know, the Packers struggled in the running game, coming in #24 in the NFL in the regular season at 100.4 yard per game  (including Rodgers).  The Steelers were #11 in rushing at 120.2 yards per game.  But the Packers have improved in this category in the postseason, averaging 118.0 yards per game, just a half yard behind the Steelers 118.5.

In the last Packers-Steelers match-up on December 20, 2009, the Steelers beat the Packers 37-36 in a last-second completion from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace.  I expect a similar close game this time, though slightly lower scoring.  However, the Packers are considerably improved from a year ago, and I think most of the key match-ups favor them:

• Packers Defensive Line vs. Steelers Offensive Line – Advantage: Packers.  As everyone except Maurkice Pauncy expected, Maurkice Pauncy is not going to be playing on Sunday.  The Steelers were already missing their two starting tackles, Max Starks and Willie Colon, both of whom are on injured reserve.  This is a depleted group, and the Packers should be able to take advantage of this match-up in shutting down the run and getting pressure on Roethlisberger.
• Packers Offensive Line vs. Steelers Defensive Line – Advantage: Steelers.  The Steelers led the league in sacks and stuffing the run.  This ESPN article expertly breaks down the biggest vulnerability for the Packers: Bryan Bulaga vs. LaMarr Woodley.  Bulaga has been improving, but he gave up 6 of the Packers' 12 one-on-one sacks this season.  He needs to have a good game for the Packers to be successful on offense.
• Packers Receivers vs. Steelers Secondary – Advantage: Packers.  This promises to be one of the areas the Packers can exploit on Sunday.  With rushing yards expected to be hard to come by, the Packers will likely spread out the Steelers in 3, 4, and 5-receiver sets with Rodgers in the shotgun.   This will push Troy Polamalu out of the box, where he usually likes to lurk.  And force corners Bryant McFadden, Ike Taylor, and William Gay to run with our receivers.  This has been a mismatch for every team we’ve faced this season, and it will be for the Steelers on Sunday as well.
• Packers Secondary vs. Steelers Receivers – Advantage: Packers.  Mike Wallace makes me nervous with his speed, but Tramon Williams and Sam Shields can both run with him.  Woodson will likely spy on Roethlisberger and cover tight end Heath Miller.  If the Steelers go spread, Woodson may be able to get some surprise blitzes from the slot.  If this game becomes a shoot-out, I think the Packers can stop them – Roethlisberger’s historic 500+ yard performance last year not withstanding.

Overall, I believe, while the Steelers are a great team, the match-ups favor the Packers.  As long as they can avoid a big hit on Rodgers and can stay relatively balanced between passing and running, the Packers should have advantages that they can exploit.  We’ll know soon enough.  Go Pack Go!!!

Dumbest Ads of the 2010 NFL Season

One of the many side-shows of the Super Bowl is the commercials.  As big a tradition as the game itself is the analysis of what runs in the world’s most expensive advertising time.  During the regular season, I typically watch Packers games with about a 20-minute buffer on my DVR, which enables me to fast forward over commercials.  A typical football broadcast includes over an hour of commercials (and only 11 minutes of actual action, according to the Wall Street Journal), and those ads can get pretty damn painful – particularly the campaigns that run so often that you can practically recite them.

There were three advertising campaigns during the 2010 NFL season that deserve special recognition for their idiocy, annoyance, and ubiquity.  In spite of my fast-forwarding, these campaigns were virtually inescapable.  Here are my top picks for the worst NFL ad campaigns of 2010:

1) Tie between Viagara and Cialis – It’s always a reach-for-the-remote moment when these ads come on, so as to avoid questions from my young children like, “Daddy, what’s an erection?”  Viagra and Cialis ads are so pervasive that you’d think every man in America suffers from ED.  It’s always the side-effect warnings that crack me up.  If anyone needs to be told to seek immediate medical help for “an erection lasting more than 4 hours” or a “sudden dramatic loss of hearing or vision” then maybe he ought to think twice before procreating in the first place.  I picture a guy, blind and deaf due to self-medication with blue hands and feet due to low circulation, declaring, “Don't call 9-1-1 yet, honey, I’ve only had an erection for 3 hours.”  If I had an erection lasting more than 4 hours I think I’d need a blood transfusion.  And a cigarette.  Let’s keep ads for male performance drugs where they’re supposed to be – clogging up your inbox with spam – not on the Super Bowl.

2) Miller Lite Vortex Bottle – You’ve all seen this commercial where the guy orders a light beer and the waitress condescendingly asks “Don’t you want a Miller Lite Vortex Bottle?”  When the guy protests asking what the big deal is about the Vortex bottle, she replies “It has grooves…” with a “you dumb ass” look on her face.  Maybe I’m too old, but what the hell are they talking about?  What… am I supposed to screw this thing to a garden hose and make a beer bong?   Word of warning to prospective buyers wooed by the pitch “the Vortex grooves let that great pilsner taste flow right out,” if you’re buying your beer on the basis of the velocity with which it flows from the bottle to your mouth, you may want to get a second opinion on your drinking habits.  Why didn’t they just include a pull-tab on the bottom so you can shotgun it properly?  They should just call this what it is: the “Miller Lite Shitface Bottle” and add the 800 number for AA next to their “Please Drink Responsibly” footnote.

Thank God I have this cold-activated can!

3) Coors Light Cold-Activated Can – Another brain-dead “innovation” from our friends at MillerCoors.  Like the Vortex Bottle, the Cold-Activated Can is a solution to a problem nobody has.  Evidently designed for the hard of touch, this can is supposed to tell me by way of the mountains turning blue that it’s cold.  Now, presumably, I’ve picked up the can to inspect the aforementioned mountains, at which point one would think I could ascertain whether the can I was holding was A) Cold, or B) Not Cold.  Maybe the Coors folks thought this would be a useful back-up sensory system for the drinker who is so inebriated that he’s lost his sense of feeling and most of his motor skills.  As he lays with his cheek pressed to the floor and eyes at half mast, he need only to glance at those blue mountains and rest assured that the next beer will not only trigger vomiting but is darn cold.

Hopefully, Madison Avenue has something more creative up their sleeve for the Super Bowl, because if any of these ads run for the 300th time on Sunday I may hurl my remote control into the TV.  And I don’t want to miss the game.

Three Things the Packers Must Do to Win the Super Bowl

Ardent Packer fan and Black Eyed Peas front-woman, Fergie.

In the flurry of asinine media coverage spewing from North Texas this week, one has to remind oneself that there is, at the end of this arduous journey of journalistic one-upsmanship, a football game to be played.  After the shrill circus on media row finishes blabbing about Cutler’s injury, egotistical owners, and Packer player tweets, there will actually be two teams who take the field – one of whom, if I remember correctly from what seems like months ago, is the Packers.

That means that, like all sports media covering this over-hyped affair, I need to eventually provide some modicum of value in the form of a pre-game analysis, and not just speculate what outfit Fergie will come out in for the Black Eyed Peas' half-time show (though, by all accounts, she’s a die-hard Packers fan, so I expect something green and gold).  So enough of the escapade, it’s time for the serious-ish football breakdown you’ve come to expect from TriggPack.

As any good Super Bowl coach can tell you, you need to ride the horse that got you there.  And for me, the good luck formula that has worked in both the Atlanta and Chicago games is my three keys to the a victory on Sunday.  So here goes:

1. Exploit Maurkice Pouncey’s absence – although the Steelers still refuse to declare him out, the injury to Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey could prove pivotal.  Initially reported as a “high ankle sprain,” it turns out the guy has a broken bone.  Although he is talking tough, claiming he’s 75% likely to start Sunday, anyone with a medical degree has to be skeptical.  Behind him is the not-often-heralded veteran Doug Legursky.  Regardless of who starts, the Steelers will be vulnerable at this critical position.  B.J. Raji should be able to exploit Legursky or Pouncy and his hard cast and command a double team, which will mean fewer blockers for Jenkins, Pickett and Matthews, and a tougher time picking up the Packers’ blitzes.  The Steelers offensive line wasn’t particularly good to start with, but Green Bay needs to exploit this situation fully to stuff the run and get pressure on Roethlisberger. 
2. Return to the short passing game – the Steelers had the #1 run defense in the regular season, allowing just 62.8 rushing yards per game (the Packers were #18 at 114.9 yard/game, by the way).  So even though James Starks has come on of late, it is going to be hard to run the ball against the Steelers’ front seven.  It will also be hard to connect on the 20+ yard passing game that was such a key part of the win against the Bears.  The Steelers’ blitz schemes and complex coverages will make those long plays difficult to complete.  I think the Packers will need to dig out the West Coast offense playbook that McCarthy hopefully has stashed someplace and run more screens, slants and other quick release formations to slow down the pass rush and open up the running game.  The receivers will have to be sharp.  Finley would be so nice to have on the active roster right now.  Quarless and Crabtree will need to step up – as will Starks and Jackson out of the backfield.
3. Don’t get intimidated by the stage – If there’s one area the Steelers have a decided advantage, it’s that they’ve been here before.  Even with Roger Goodell stirring up the Roethlisberger sexual harassment controversy again, the Steelers know what to expect this week – the hard questions, the scrutiny, the parties, the fans, the half-time festivities, all the go-to-your-head pomp and circumstance that is the Super Bowl.  Rodgers and Roethlisberger were interviewed during halftime of the Pro Bowl, and I thought Rodgers seemed a little more tense and reserved than usual.  The Packers have done a good job playing through hype and drama this year, particularly during this playoff run.  And who they are as individuals as well as their chemistry as a team suggest they will remain focused on the task at-hand and not get overly distracted.  But they need to play calm, play within themselves, do what they do well, and not make mental mistakes if they’re going to win this game.  If you see any Packers players getting autographs from Will.i.am before the game, you'll know we're in trouble.

Overall, this is a great match-up on paper – two very similar teams, two storied franchises, two organizations trying to make history.  Even though the media mayhem is getting tiresome, I will continue to lap up every bit of news leading up to the big game.  Can’t wait.

Jerry Jones Insists Cowboys in Super Bowl

Dallas owner Jerry Jones made an unexpected appearance at media day today insisting that the Cowboys would be playing in Sunday’s Super Bowl.  After an uncomfortable pause, members of the press hoped that Cowboys’ PR manager Brett Daniels would inform Mr. Jones of his mistake, but, unwilling to face the wrath of his boss, he stayed on the podium for over an hour answering his own questions.

“Do I think the Cowboys are really America’s team?  Absolutely!” said a confident Mr. Jones in his endearing Southern drawl.  “What other team, what other city, exemplifies the American way of life better than Dallas?  How ‘bout them Cowboys!?”

When Sports Illustrated football columnist Peter King finally had the courage to break the awkward silence by pointing out that the Cowboys not only weren’t in the Super Bowl but hadn’t even made the playoffs, Jones went on a tirade.

Jerry's World: Cowboys in the Super Bowl and everyone drinking Pepsi Max.

“Of course we’re in the playoffs!  Of course we’re in the Super Bowl!  You think I’d go and spend $1.15 billion on a stadium, ask the good citizens of Arlington to jack up their sales tax by 0.5 percent, impose a hotel occupancy tax of 2 percent, and tax car rentals by 5 percent just so we can sit back on the barcaloungers in my luxury sky box and watch some small market team like the Packers play for a championship on our home turf!?”

Cricket chirping...

After nearly 90 minutes of berating the press corps, Mr. Jones finally stepped down from the podium with the parting comment, “Remember, I’m Jerry Jones, and I’m a winner, and I always drink Pepsi Max!”